野村：美国稳定币及美元霸权延续前景

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the stablecoin industry Core Insights - The US Congress is developing regulations to promote the sound development of stablecoins, reflecting strong support from the Trump administration for crypto assets and aiming to maintain the US dollar's dominance as the world's currency [2][5][6] - The GENIUS Act establishes a regulatory framework for stablecoins, requiring issuers to maintain reserve assets and disclose information about their reserves [4][7][8] - The stablecoin market is projected to expand significantly, potentially reaching $2 trillion by the end of 2028, driven by the demand for USD-pegged stablecoins [15][17] Summary by Sections Regulatory Developments - The US Senate passed the GENIUS Act, which aims to create a regulatory framework for stablecoins, requiring issuers to be approved by authorities and maintain reserves of highly liquid assets [4][5][7] - Issuers must disclose reserve asset information monthly, with additional requirements for those with a market capitalization exceeding $50 billion [8][9] Market Dynamics - Major US retailers and travel companies are considering issuing USD-pegged stablecoins, which could lead to competition with banks and impact their fee income from credit card transactions [11][12][13] - The current global stablecoin market is dominated by USD-pegged stablecoins, which account for over 90% of transactions [16] Economic Implications - The promotion of USD-pegged stablecoins is seen as a strategy to maintain the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency, potentially stabilizing the US Treasury bond market by increasing demand for these bonds [15][18][19] - The issuance of stablecoins could lead to increased foreign investment in US Treasuries, contributing to the stability of the dollar [20][21] Historical Context and Risks - The report draws parallels with the abandoned Libra project, highlighting potential risks associated with expanding stablecoin use for international payments [23][24][32] - Concerns exist regarding the ability of authorities to effectively supervise privately issued stablecoins and prevent financial crimes [28]