摩根大通：制药行业_对特朗普总统制药关税的评论_200% 的比例出人意料，但有过渡期

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the pharmaceutical sector, but it discusses the potential impact of tariffs on companies, indicating a cautious outlook for those affected by high tariffs [1][2]. Core Insights - President Trump's announcement of potential tariffs on pharmaceuticals, including a surprising 200% rate, may lead to a transition period of 1 to 1.5 years, allowing companies to adjust their supply chains [1][2]. - The consensus view in the stock market suggests that a 25% tariff impact can be managed, but the implications of a 200% tariff are still uncertain due to the transition period and lack of official announcement [2][3]. - Companies manufacturing pharmaceuticals outside the US will likely need to revise their supply chains, potentially relying on contract development and manufacturing organizations (CDMOs) in the short to medium term [3]. Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - The report highlights that if a 200% tariff is imposed, certain companies will be significantly affected based on their current supply chain conditions, but it is premature to assess the full impact due to the transition period [2][3]. - The U.S. Department of Commerce is investigating national security concerns regarding pharmaceutical imports, which may delay the announcement of tariffs until after the investigation is completed [2]. Supply Chain Adjustments - Japanese pharmaceutical companies like Takeda and Sumitomo Pharma primarily manufacture for the U.S. market within the U.S., while others may need to adjust their supply chains significantly [3]. - The transition period allows companies to build up inventories, potentially extending the response time to tariff implementations [3]. CDMO Business Implications - CDMOs with manufacturing bases in the U.S. are expected to see increased demand, particularly companies like Fujifilm Holdings, which has existing contracts for contract manufacturing of antibody drugs [7]. - Fujifilm's long-term outlook for CDMO sales is already factored into its projections, indicating that any new contracts may not significantly alter its financial outlook unless driven by increased demand or pricing power [7].