瑞银：中国互联网行业_对即时零售竞争的思考

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to major companies in the China Internet sector, including Alibaba, JD.com, Meituan, and Tencent [28]. Core Insights - The quick commerce sector in China is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected market size of Rmb760 billion by 2025, representing 4-5% of the e-commerce market [3]. - Major players like Alibaba and Meituan are significantly increasing their investments to capture market share, with Alibaba committing Rmb50 billion and Meituan surpassing 120 million daily orders [2][3]. - The competition is described as a "game of chicken," with companies expected to continue heavy investments until at least the Double 11 shopping festival [4]. Summary by Sections Quick Commerce Competition - Competition in quick commerce is intensifying, driven by substantial platform subsidies from major players [2]. - Alibaba's Taobao InstaShopping and Meituan are leading in daily order volumes, with Alibaba achieving 80 million combined daily orders and Meituan surpassing 120 million [2]. Market Size and Growth - The total addressable market (TAM) for quick commerce is expected to grow by 30% by 2025, primarily taking market share from traditional retail rather than e-commerce [3]. - The rapid increase in order volume is attributed to consumer behavior and effective coupon utilization strategies [3]. Financial Implications - Earnings cuts are anticipated across e-commerce giants due to the competitive landscape, with expected annual investments of Rmb25 billion from JD, Rmb25-30 billion from Alibaba, and Rmb25 billion from Meituan [4]. - The report forecasts a market share split of 50% for Meituan, 30% for Alibaba, and 20% for JD in the medium term [4]. Stock Recommendations - The report suggests a cautious approach towards Meituan due to high earnings expectations and valuation concerns, while recommending Alibaba for potential value extraction if executed well [7]. - JD's valuation is considered undemanding, and its performance will be monitored as trade in subsidies fades [7].