摩根士丹利：联发科-关于我们的AI ASIC 项目状态的思考

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for MediaTek with a price target of NT$1,888, indicating a potential upside of 39% from the current price of NT$1,355 [5][18][39]. Core Insights - The report expresses optimism regarding the timing and revenue contribution of Google's TPU project, projecting that MediaTek could recognize over $1 billion in revenue from this project in 2026, primarily in Q4 [2][3][10]. - The Meta MTIA project is viewed as a bull case with a 50% chance of success, which could elevate the price target to NT$2,600 if won [3][18][33]. Summary by Sections Financial Projections - MediaTek's revenue is projected to grow from NT$530.6 billion in 2024 to NT$809.96 billion by 2027, with net income expected to increase from NT$106.4 billion to NT$212.8 billion over the same period [5][46]. - The EPS is forecasted to rise from NT$66.93 in 2025 to NT$133.68 by 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [5][46]. Market Outlook - The global semiconductor market is anticipated to reach $1 trillion by 2030, with AI semiconductors driving significant growth, projected to reach $480 billion [17][19]. - The cloud AI ASIC market is expected to grow to $50 billion by 2030, presenting substantial opportunities for MediaTek and other Asian ASIC vendors [17][19]. Competitive Positioning - MediaTek is positioned as a strong competitor in the AI ASIC space, leveraging its operational efficiency and cost advantages, which are critical for customer total cost of ownership [7][11]. - The report highlights MediaTek's potential to gain market share in high-end smartphone markets with its Dimensity 9400 flagship SoC, supported by ecosystem partnerships [35][36].