摩根大通：中国策略_中国的下一个政策转折点

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the equity market under the "anti-involution" policy, suggesting potential for improved margins despite a near-term negative impact on GDP growth [8][12]. Core Insights - The report discusses China's shift towards an "anti-involution" policy aimed at controlling excess supply-side capacity, which has contributed to deflation and reduced corporate profitability [2][3]. - It highlights the historical context of supply-side reforms in China, noting that the current phase is reminiscent of past capacity rationalizations that began in mid-2014 [4][7]. - The report identifies sectors with excess capacity, including Food Processing, Autos, Electronics, Chemicals, and Healthcare, which could see margin improvements if utilization rates increase [8][12]. Summary by Sections Supply-Side Reforms - The report outlines three phases of China's previous capacity rationalization cycle, emphasizing that the current situation is in the early stages of Phase 1, characterized by policy anticipation and a "hope rally" [4][7]. - It notes that low utilization rates across various sectors indicate a need for improved supply discipline, with recent policy comments from the Central Commission for Finance & Economic Affairs being particularly significant [7][8]. Sector Analysis - The report suggests that while addressing supply-side excesses may weigh on GDP growth in the short term, it is likely to benefit stock performance due to better margins [8][12]. - Solar Glass is highlighted as a sector to watch, with potential for significant upside if government-enforced capacity discipline is implemented, suggesting a possible increase in stock valuation from 0.9x P/B to 3x P/B [8][12]. Investment Themes - The report identifies three key investment themes: yield stocks benefiting from low interest rates, consumer leaders poised for growth, and companies that will benefit from improved supply discipline [12][13]. - Specific stock recommendations include Petrochina, CR Power, and Ping An for yield stocks, and Alibaba, Tencent, and JD for consumer leaders [13].