摩根大通：日本股票策略_2025 年中期展望_结构性变化与事件风险

Investment Rating - Overweight on Japanese equities with an end-of-year target for TOPIX at 3,000 and Nikkei Average at ¥40,000 [8][9][10] Core Insights - Corporate earnings remain resilient, particularly in domestic demand-oriented sectors, with no change in guidance at manufacturers and upward revisions at non-manufacturers [6][8] - The report anticipates a gradual yen appreciation to ¥140/$ by December 2025, with manageable impacts on share prices [8][10] - The impact of reciprocal tariffs is expected to be manageable, with a 10% reciprocal tariff already priced in by the market [8][10] Summary by Themes Theme 1: Impact of Trump Tariffs - Expect only a 4-6% EPS decline for Japanese companies due to US tariffs, with the largest impact on the autos sector [10][62] - Share prices in the autos sector have already factored in successful negotiations, assuming tariffs are lowered to 10% [10][62] Theme 2: Domestic Economic Activity and Bank of Japan Outlook - Moderate improvement in domestic economic activity is anticipated due to peaking import inflation and spring wage hikes [10][8] - The Bank of Japan is gradually moving toward policy normalization, with expectations for the next rate hike in late 2025 [10][8] Theme 3: Forex Rate Impact on Japanese Stocks - A moderate yen appreciation is expected, with a cross-asset view assuming dollar strength and yen weakness [10][8] Theme 4: Corporate Reform and ROE Improvement - More companies are committing to balance sheet reforms, with total payout ratios over 100% and management restructuring initiatives [10][8] Theme 5: Fund Flow - Fund flow trends indicate a shift towards buying European and Japanese stocks post-tariff shock, with NISA purchases continuing for both foreign and domestic stocks [10][8] Political Landscape - The report highlights key political events in 2025, including the Upper House election and potential impacts on the ruling coalition's status [11][19] - The consumption tax cut is a hot topic ahead of the Upper House election, with various party pledges regarding tax policies [21][28]