花旗：美国经济_FOMC会议纪要预览 - 准备降低利率

Investment Rating - The report suggests a dovish outlook for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) with expectations of interest rate cuts resuming in September, totaling 125 basis points through March of the following year [1]. Core Insights - The minutes from the June FOMC meeting are anticipated to align more closely with dovish statements from Fed officials rather than the neutral tone expressed by Chair Powell during the press conference [1]. - Recent strong job reports have made an immediate rate cut unlikely, but a shift towards a dovish stance has been observed among Fed officials, indicating potential cuts in the near future [7][8]. - The report emphasizes that the uncertainty regarding economic outlook has decreased, which may lead to a consensus among committee members to support a rate cut by September [9]. Summary by Sections Economic Conditions - Three months of sub-target core PCE inflation have contributed to a more dovish sentiment among Fed officials, with some shifting from hawkish to supportive of rate cuts [6][7]. - Chair Powell's previous openness to a July cut was curtailed by strong job numbers, reinforcing the expectation of a September cut instead [8]. FOMC Meeting Insights - The language from the May FOMC meeting minutes will be revised to reflect decreased uncertainty and an expectation for more data collection over the summer [9]. - The report notes that while some officials maintain hawkish views, the majority expect to lower policy rates before the end of the year [11].