瑞银：铁矿石及炼焦煤基本面

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating on Vale, RIO, BHP, and FMG, with a Sell rating on KIO [7] Core Insights - The iron ore market is expected to move into surplus starting in the second half of 2025, with prices projected to average around $90 per ton in 2026 due to increased supply from Australian projects and Simandou in Guinea [5][10] - Metallurgical coal prices are anticipated to remain range-bound at approximately $180 per ton over the next 1-2 years, with limited downside risk [6][15] Iron Ore Fundamentals - Supply and demand fundamentals for iron ore were initially tight in early 2025 but softened in the second quarter as seaborne supply recovered and steel production moderated [5] - Iron ore prices have softened since mid-May, influenced by elevated inventories at ports and mills in China, alongside moderating steel production [7] - The report expects a balanced market in 2025, transitioning to a surplus in 2026/27, driven by increased supply from major producers [10][13] Metallurgical Coal Fundamentals - Demand for metallurgical coal is challenged in regions like India and China due to high domestic production and increased supply from Mongolia [6] - The medium-term outlook for metallurgical coal is more favorable, but the market needs to absorb new supply over the next 1-2 years [6] - The report suggests that while prices are expected to remain stable, the market may rebalance by 2027/28 as demand grows and supply is curtailed [15] Supply and Demand Projections - Iron ore supply is expected to grow by approximately 3% annually in 2026 and 2027, with significant contributions from Australia and Brazil [11] - The report anticipates that China's steel demand will decline by about 1% per annum over the next 3-5 years, impacting iron ore demand [12] - For metallurgical coal, the report predicts a moderate growth in seaborne demand of 1-2% in the medium term, supported by new blast furnaces being constructed in India and Southeast Asia [15]