摩根大通：全球液化天然气分析_聚焦中国_年度下滑中下半年出现反弹

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the LNG industry Core Insights - The report highlights a projected recovery in China's LNG demand in the second half of 2025, despite an overall decline in annual volumes due to various factors including mild weather and increased renewable energy output [5][26][29] - Global LNG trade in June 2025 reached 46.5 Bcm, showing a slight month-over-month decline but a year-over-year increase of 5.9% [5] - The report anticipates a total of approximately 294 Bcm/year of LNG projects currently under construction to begin operations by 2030, with the US accounting for about half of this capacity [1][6] Summary by Sections Global LNG Balances - Year-to-date global LNG demand growth was primarily driven by Europe and the East Mediterranean region, while demand from Asia, particularly China, saw a decline [5][26] - The report forecasts a total LNG trade volume of 590 Bcm for the full year 2025, reflecting a growth of around 5% [5][17] Spotlight on China - China's LNG demand has been weak in 2025, with a 1.3% decline in overall natural gas demand in the first five months compared to the previous year [26][27] - The Power of Siberia pipeline has reduced the need for more expensive LNG imports, contributing to a projected total LNG import volume of 101 Bcm for the year, down 4.7% year-over-year [28][29] Import Trends by Country - The report details that YTD LNG supply growth has been led by the US, with an increase of 11.5 Bcm to 72.4 Bcm, largely due to the Plaquemines LNG facility [5][6] - European imports have increased significantly, while demand from Asia, particularly China, has decreased [5][19] Export Trends by Country - The report notes that North America, the Middle East, and the Pacific regions are the primary exporters, with total exports reaching 46.5 Bcm in June 2025 [19][20] - The report highlights various upcoming projects and expansions in the LNG sector, including those in Mozambique and Canada, which are expected to contribute to future supply [10][11]