瑞银：美国电气设备与多元工业-“一个巨大而美好的” 展望

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for several companies including Carrier, Eaton, Honeywell, Johnson Controls, 3M, and Trane Technologies, while Dover, Emerson Electric, Fastenal, Fortive, and Rockwell Automation are rated as "Neutral" [10][56]. Core Insights - The outlook for the Electrical Equipment and Multi-Industry sector is optimistic, with expectations for industrial equities to continue rising. The report highlights the importance of stock selection and notes that demand destruction has not been observed so far [12][39]. - The upcoming earnings season is anticipated to show positive results due to price/cost and foreign exchange tailwinds, along with order reacceleration [12]. - The report emphasizes the structural support mechanisms for equity value, including strong consumer and corporate balance sheets, and a return of small business confidence [12]. - Tax incentives related to nearshoring are expected to bolster capital expenditures, contributing to a favorable investment environment [12]. - The report identifies key companies such as Johnson Controls, 3M, and Honeywell as having significant earnings potential and structural improvement opportunities [12][38][39]. Summary by Sections Comparative Valuation - The report includes a detailed comparative valuation table for various companies, showing metrics such as market cap, EV/EBITDA, P/E ratios, and target prices [10]. - For example, Carrier has a market cap of $65 billion with a "Buy" rating and a target price of $81, while Dover has a market cap of $26 billion with a "Neutral" rating and a target price of $211 [10]. Investment Framework - The report outlines an investment framework focusing on stock selection and the potential for further upside in a reacceleration scenario, estimating a 30% increase in stock prices if demand returns [12]. - Specific companies are highlighted for their growth potential, including Johnson Controls, which is expected to see a 70% increase in earnings power over the next three years due to a new CEO [12][37]. Earnings Projections - Earnings projections for Johnson Controls indicate a sales growth from $23.3 billion in 2025 to $27.7 billion by 2028, with a targeted EBIT margin improvement [37]. - The report also discusses the complexities within Johnson Controls' business structure, indicating areas for potential improvement and synergies [38][40]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the industrial sector has experienced significant volatility, with historical data showing a peak-to-trough decline of 19% as of December 2024 [23]. - It also discusses the impact of tariffs on U.S. consumers, with a reduction in the estimated tariff burden from over $700 billion to approximately $300 billion [22]. Long-term Outlook - The report expresses confidence in the long-term growth potential of the sector, driven by structural changes and improvements within key companies [39]. - The anticipated return on investment in manufacturing structures is projected to yield significant benefits over the coming years [28].