LPG早报-20250714

Group 1: Report Core Insights - The base of the LPG market is volatile, with the PG futures price dropping significantly, the monthly spread moving down, and the 08 - 09 spread at 86. The US - Far East arbitrage window is open. The market is mainly in a state of oscillation [1]. - The cost of CP production is lower than that of FEI. The production profit of PP made from FEI and CP has worsened, and the PDH operating rate has decreased to 60.87% (-3.12pct), but it is expected to rise in the future [1]. - The import cost has increased, the external market price has risen slightly, the oil - gas ratio is basically flat, and the internal - external price difference has weakened. The freight has increased slightly [1]. - This week, the arrival of LPG at ports has increased, chemical demand has decreased, combustion demand is average, terminal sales at ports are ordinary, and port inventories have increased by 6.92%. Factory inventories are basically flat with regional differences [1]. - The market is expected to see price increases in Shandong and East China due to chemical demand support, while the focus in South China is expected to shift downward due to weak combustion demand [1]. Group 2: Data Summaries Price and Spread Data - The price of the cheapest deliverable, East China civil gas, is 4496. The daily change in prices shows decreases in some products, such as a - 10 change in South China LPG price, - 5 in MB propane, etc. The basis has weakened slightly to 340 (-9), and the 08 - 09 spread is 86 (-11), 08 - 10 is -332 (-38) [1]. Cost and Profit Data - FEI and CP prices have dropped, CP production cost is lower than FEI, and the production profit of PP from FEI and CP has turned poor [1]. Inventory and Demand Data - Port inventories have increased by 6.92%, and the PDH operating rate is 60.87% (-3.12pct), with expectations of improvement [1]. - The number of registered warrants is 8304 (-10) [1].