原油成品油早报-20250714

Group 1: Report Summary - Report title: Crude Oil and Refined Oil Morning Report [2] - Report date: July 14, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] Group 2: Market Data Price Changes from July 7 - 11, 2025 - WTI increased by $1.88, BRENT by $1.72, and DUBAI by $0.97 [3] - SC decreased by 8.60, OMAN increased by $0.62 [3] - Japan naphtha CFR decreased by 19.40, Singapore fuel oil 380CST decreased by 0.65 [3][18] Other Market Indicators - BRENT 1 - 2 month spread increased by 0.12, WTI - BRENT decreased by 0.16 [3] - SC - BRT decreased by 2.89, SC - WTI decreased by 3.05 [3] - Domestic gasoline decreased by 30.00, domestic gasoline - BRT decreased by 130.00 [3] Group 3: Daily News - Kazakhstan plans to maintain current oil production levels until the end of the year [3] - A Gaza cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas may be reached in one or two weeks [4] - UAE Energy Minister is not worried about oil market oversupply and sees no increase in oil product inventories [4] - OPEC + is discussing pausing production increases from October and entering a waiting period [4][6] - Saudi Arabia's crude exports to China in June reached the highest level since 2023, with about 1.57 million barrels per day [4] Group 4: Regional Fundamentals US Data (Week ending July 4) - US crude exports increased by 45.2万桶/日 to 275.7万桶/日 [5] - US domestic crude production decreased by 4.8万桶 to 1338.5万桶/日 [5] - Commercial crude inventory (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 707.0万桶 to 426 million barrels, a 1.69% increase [5] - US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 23.8万桶 to 403 million barrels, a 0.06% increase [5] - US commercial crude imports (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 90.6万桶/日 to 601.3万桶/日 [5] - EIA gasoline inventory was - 265.8万桶, against an expected - 148.6万桶 [5] - EIA refined oil inventory was - 82.5万桶, against an expected - 31.4万桶 [5] China Data - Main refinery operating rate increased, Shandong local refinery operating rate decreased [5] - China's gasoline and diesel production both increased, with main refineries up and independent refineries down [5] - Gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated this week [5] - Main refinery comprehensive profit rebounded, local refinery comprehensive profit improved [5] Group 5: Weekly View - Crude oil prices fluctuated this week, and the monthly spreads of the three major crude oil markets oscillated at high levels [6] - The US plans to impose new tariffs on over 20 countries from August 1, and other trading partners may face 15% - 20% tariffs [6] - OPEC + is discussing pausing production increases from October after restoring 2.2 million barrels of supply in September, and then considering restoring another 1.66 million barrels of production later [6] - Global oil inventories accumulated this week, with a significant increase in US crude inventories during the week of July 4 [6] - US oil drilling rigs decreased by 1, and fracturing operations rebounded during the week ending July 11 [6] - Refinery profits in Europe and the US strengthened this week, and the near - month spread of European diesel soared [6] - The fundamentals of gasoline and diesel in Asia and China are neutral, with accelerated inventory accumulation of gasoline and diesel in China and a decline in refinery profits [6] - During the peak refinery operation season, the monthly spreads of crude oil are expected to remain high - level oscillating, with WTI and Brent stronger than the Dubai market [6] - Crude oil prices face downward pressure in the medium - term due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and tariff policies, and OPEC + pausing production increases in the fourth quarter will not change the situation [6]