芳烃橡胶早报-20250714

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the near - end TA start - up slightly increased, polyester load further declined, inventory continued to accumulate, the basis declined, and spot processing fees weakened significantly. Entering the inventory - accumulation stage, the slope depends on the weakening degree of the polyester off - season. Since the spot processing fee has been compressed to an extremely low level, there may be a marginal reduction in supply, and the absolute inventory is not high. Attention should be paid to the opportunity to expand processing fees on dips [2]. - For MEG, the near - end domestic coal - based restart drove the start - up to increase monthly, Saudi Arabian plants are restarting, port inventories will accumulate at the beginning of next week, port shipments were okay this week, and downstream stocking levels increased, with the basis remaining stable and the benefit ratio maintained. With no reduction in Iranian and ethane supply and the increase in domestic start - up, it will gradually enter the inventory - accumulation stage. With low actual inventory and not low valuation, it is expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to changes in warehouse receipts [4]. - For polyester staple fiber, the near - end supply side saw a reduction in production by Ningbo Dafa, the start - up declined to 92.3%, production and sales remained stable monthly, and inventory basically remained unchanged. On the demand side, the start - up of the polyester yarn end continued to decline, the inventory structure maintained the depletion of raw material stocking and the accumulation of finished - product inventory, and the benefit remained low. With acceptable benefits and inventory pressure, there is no obvious reduction or increase in supply. With weak domestic demand and high export growth, processing fees are expected to be range - bound [4]. - For natural rubber, the national explicit inventory remained stable at a relatively low absolute level, but there was no seasonal decline. The price of Thai cup lump rubber rebounded due to rainfall affecting tapping [4]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs PTA - Price and Index Changes: From July 7 - 11, 2025, crude oil prices fluctuated slightly, PX processing differentials changed, PTA spot prices decreased, and PTA processing fees weakened significantly. For example, the PTA spot price dropped from 4810 on July 7 to 4710 on July 11, and the PTA processing fee decreased from 265.0 to 253.0 [2]. - Device Changes: Hainan Yisheng increased the load of its 2 million - ton device [2]. MEG - Price and Index Changes: From July 7 - 11, 2025, MEG prices changed slightly, with the MEG domestic price increasing from 4345 on July 7 to 4384 on July 11, and the MEG profit increasing from - 704 to - 663 [4]. - Device Changes: Xinjiang Tianying restarted its 150,000 - ton device [4]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Index Changes: From July 7 - 11, 2025, the spot price of polyester staple fiber decreased slightly, and the short - fiber profit increased slightly. For example, the spot price dropped from 6760 on July 7 to 6700 on July 11, and the short - fiber profit increased from - 60 to - 50 [4]. - Device Changes: Ningbo Dafa reduced production, and the start - up rate decreased to 92.3% [4]. Natural Rubber - Price and Index Changes: From July 7 - 11, 2025, the prices of Thai cup lump rubber and Thai latex increased slightly, while the prices of some domestic rubber types decreased. For example, the price of Thai cup lump rubber increased from 1700 on July 7 to 1740 on July 11, and the price of Shanghai 3L rubber decreased from 13820 on July 7 to 13645 on July 9 [4]. - Market Situation: The national explicit inventory remained stable at a relatively low level, and the price of Thai cup lump rubber rebounded due to rainfall affecting tapping [4]. Styrene - Price and Index Changes: From July 7 - 11, 2025, the price of ethylene remained unchanged at 820, the price of pure benzene increased slightly, and the price of styrene also increased. For example, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) increased from 728 on July 7 to 745 on July 11, and the price of styrene (CFR China) increased from 910 on July 7 to 930 on July 11 [8]. - Profit Changes: The domestic profit of styrene increased, and the domestic profit of EPS also increased significantly, from 40 on July 7 to 175 on July 11 [8].