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油脂油料早报-20250714
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-07-14 03:32

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The USDA's July supply - demand report shows changes in the 2025/26 forecasts for US soybeans and soybean oil, with decreases in soybean export and production estimates and increases in soybean oil production and domestic consumption estimates [1] - US soybean crush volume in June 2025 is expected to drop to a four - month low due to slower daily processing speed, but it will still be the highest for the same period on record after capacity expansion [1] - The US biofuel demand will absorb over half of the US soybean oil production next year, leading to a significant drop in soybean oil exports [1] - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting area is expected to grow by 1.2%, and production may reach a record high [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - US 2025/26 Soybean Information: The sown area is estimated at 83.4 million acres (down from 83.5 million in June), the harvested area at 82.5 million acres (down from 82.7 million in June), the yield per acre at 52.5 bushels (unchanged from June), the production at 4.335 billion bushels (down from 4.34 billion in June), the export volume at 1.745 billion bushels (down from 1.815 billion in June), and the ending stocks at 310 million bushels (up from 295 million in June) [1] - US 2025/26 Soybean Oil Information: The production is estimated at 29.97 billion pounds (up from 29.38 billion in June), the export volume at 700 million pounds (down from 1.7 billion in June), the domestic consumption at 29.5 billion pounds (up from 27.9 billion in June), and the ending stocks at 1.671 billion pounds (up from 1.531 billion in June) [1] - US June 2025 Soybean Crush Estimate: Analysts estimate the crush volume at 185.195 million bushels, a 4.0% drop from May but a 5.5% increase from June 2024. The daily processing volume is 6.173 million bushels, the lowest monthly speed since September last year. The estimated range is 182 million to 188 million bushels, with a median of 185.175 million bushels. The estimated soybean oil inventory of NOPA members as of June 30 is 1.374 billion pounds, a 0.1% increase from May but a 15.3% decrease from last year [1] - Soybean Export: A private exporter reported selling 219,900 tons of soybeans to Mexico for the 2025/2026 marketing year [1] - US Biofuel Demand for Soybean Oil: The USDA expects biofuel producers to consume over half of the US soybean oil production in 2025/26, with the demand forecast raised to a record 15.5 billion pounds, an 11.5% increase from the previous month and a 26.5% increase from the current market year. Due to increased domestic consumption, the export volume is expected to drop to 700 million pounds from 2.6 billion pounds this year [1] - Brazil's 2025/26 Soybean Outlook: Safras & Mercado estimates Brazil's soybean planting area to grow 1.2% to 48.2 million hectares (119.1 million acres), and the production to reach a record 179.88 million tons, a 4.6% increase from 2024/25 [1] Spot Prices - Spot prices for soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from July 7 - 11, 2025 are provided in a table [3] Other Information - Information on imported soybean crushing profit on the futures market and grease import profit is mentioned but not detailed [2] - Protein meal basis and grease basis are mentioned but not detailed [4][5]