大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250714

Report Date and Title - The report is titled "Polyolefin Morning Report" dated July 14, 2025 [2] LLDPE Overview Fundamental Analysis - In June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, staying in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than May, back above the critical point. OPEC issued a production increase statement on July 5, increasing production for the fourth consecutive month. In the supply - demand side, it's the off - season for agricultural films, and the downstream of packaging films is weak, with most enterprises reducing their loads. There is still pressure from new capacity coming online. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7280 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4] Basis - The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is - 11, and the premium - discount ratio is - 0.2%, neutral [4] Inventory - The comprehensive PE inventory is 554,000 tons (+54,000), bearish [4] Disk - The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, neutral [4] Main Position - The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, bearish [4] Expectation - The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate. OPEC's consecutive production increases, the off - season for agricultural film demand, weak downstream demand, and upcoming production pressure still exist. The industrial inventory is neutral [4] Factors - Bullish factor: cost support; Bearish factors: new capacity launch and weak demand. The main logic is the game between cost and demand and tariff policies [6] PP Overview Fundamental Analysis - Similar to LLDPE, in June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, staying in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than May, back above the critical point. OPEC issued a production increase statement on July 5, increasing production for the fourth consecutive month. It's the off - season for downstream demand, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7180 (-20), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [7] Basis - The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 111, and the premium - discount ratio is 1.6%, bullish [7] Inventory - The comprehensive PP inventory is 581,000 tons (+11,000), bearish [7] Disk - The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, neutral [7] Main Position - The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, bearish [7] Expectation - The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate. OPEC's consecutive production increases, weak downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving, and production pressure still exist. The industrial inventory is neutral [7] Factors - Bullish factor: cost support; Bearish factor: weak demand. The main logic is the game between cost and demand and tariff policies [9] Market Data Spot and Futures - For LLDPE, the spot delivery product price is 7280, and the 09 contract price is 7291. For PP, the spot delivery product price is 7180, and the 09 contract price is 7069 [10] Inventory - PE comprehensive inventory is 554,000 tons, and PP comprehensive inventory is 581,000 tons [4][7] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets Polyethylene - From 2018 - 2024, the capacity has been increasing, with growth rates from 5.1% - 19.0%. The import dependence has shown a downward trend from 48.1% in 2019 to 32.9% in 2024. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to be 4319.5 [15] Polypropylene - From 2018 - 2024, the capacity has been growing, with growth rates from 8.4% - 19.0%. The import dependence has also decreased from 19.3% in 2020 to 9.5% in 2024. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to be 4906 [17]