Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Market speculation about Trump's plan to sanction Russian crude oil led to a recovery in gold prices and a significant increase in silver prices, with Shanghai silver hitting a new record high. The tariff concerns resurfaced, but the gold price fluctuations were limited. The increase in silver price was driven by gold price recovery and recent capital inflows, and the upward trend of silver price remained unchanged [4][6]. - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, making it difficult for the gold price to decline. The gold price sentiment was high and it was still prone to rise rather than fall. The silver price mainly followed the gold price, and the tariff concerns had a stronger impact on the silver price, which was prone to an enlarged increase [10][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The US three major stock indexes closed slightly lower, and the European three major stock indexes fell across the board. The US bond yields rose across the board, with the 10 - year US bond yield rising 6.15 basis points to 4.409%. The US dollar index rose 0.10% to 97.59, and the offshore RMB against the US dollar appreciated slightly to 7.1783. COMEX gold futures rose 1.34% to $3370.30 per ounce. The basis was - 4.01, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 27 kilograms to 21,585 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was below the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, and the main long position increased [4][5]. - Silver: Similar to gold in terms of stock indexes, bond yields, and the US dollar index performance. COMEX silver futures rose 4.74% to $39.08 per ounce. The basis was - 29, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 6,435 kilograms to 1,303,593 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, but the main long position decreased [6]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Gold: The market speculated that Trump planned to sanction Russian crude oil, and the tariff concerns resurfaced, causing the gold price to recover. The premium of Shanghai gold converged to 1.18 yuan/gram. Trump's change in attitude towards Russia drove up the gold price due to the hedging demand, but the reaction was limited [4]. - Silver: The market speculation about Trump's plan to sanction Russian crude oil, combined with recent capital inflows, led to a significant increase in the silver price. Shanghai silver continued to hit a new record high, and the ratio of silver to gold continued to decline. The premium of Shanghai silver converged to about 330 yuan/kilogram. The tariff fluctuations resurfaced, and the capital support remained, so the upward trend of the silver price remained unchanged [6]. 3.3. Today's Focus - 07:50 Japan's May core machinery orders [15] - 10:00 The State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the import and export situation in the first half of 2025 [16] - 15:00 The State Council Information Office held a press conference on the financial statistics in the first half of 2025 [16] - 20:30 Canada's May wholesale sales [16] 3.4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The basis was - 4.01, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 27 kilograms to 21,585 kilograms [5]. - Silver: The basis was - 29, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 6,435 kilograms to 1,303,593 kilograms [6]. 3.5. Position Data - Gold: The main net position was long, and the main long position increased. For the top 20 positions in Shanghai gold, on July 11, 2025, the long position volume was 190,529, a decrease of 1,296 or - 0.68% compared with July 10; the short position volume was 60,067, a decrease of 2,596 or - 4.14%; the net position was 130,462, an increase of 1,300 or 1.01% [5][31]. - Silver: The main net position was long, but the main long position decreased. For the top 20 positions in Shanghai silver, on July 11, 2025, the long position volume was 451,592, an increase of 60,922 or 15.59% compared with July 10; the short position volume was 345,222, an increase of 31,598 or 10.08%; the net position was 106,370, an increase of 29,324 or 38.06% [6][33].
大越期货贵金属早报-20250714
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-07-14 03:53