大越期货天胶早报-20250714

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, foreign spot prices are strong, domestic inventories are starting to rise, and tire operating rates are at a high level. The overall situation is neutral. The market is dominated by sentiment, and short - term trading is recommended [4]. Summary by Directory Daily Prompt - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, foreign spot is strong, domestic inventory is starting to increase, and tire operating rate is high, with a neutral assessment. The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is running above the 20 - day line (bullish). The main force has a net short position, and short positions are increasing (bearish). The market is dominated by sentiment, and short - term trading is advised [4]. Fundamental Data Supply and Demand - Supply is increasing, downstream consumption is at a high level, raw material prices are strong, and spot prices are resistant to decline [4][6]. Inventory - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the inventory in Qingdao increased week - on - week and year - on - year. Recently, the inventory of the exchange and in Qingdao has changed little [4][14][17]. Import - Import volume has seasonally declined [20]. Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales have seasonally declined, while tire production is at a record high for the same period, and tire industry exports are seasonally increasing [23][26][29][32]. Basis - The spot price is 14,350, and the basis is - 10, showing a neutral state. On July 11, the basis narrowed [4][35]. Spot Price - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) increased on July 11. The US dollar quotation in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone is also provided [8]. Multi - Empty Factors and Main Risk Points Bullish Factors - Downstream consumption is at a high level, raw material prices are strong, and spot prices are resistant to decline [6]. Bearish Factors - Supply is increasing, and the external environment is bearish [6]. Risk Points - World economic recession, lower - than - expected domestic economic growth, and Sino - US trade frictions [6].