Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The urea market is expected to be volatile today. International urea prices are strong, but the domestic market still has a significant oversupply, and export policies have not been relaxed beyond expectations [4]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: The urea futures market has been volatile recently. International supply is tight due to geopolitical factors, and Indian tender prices are expected to rise further, leading to strong international urea prices. Domestically, the operating rate has declined but remains high, and overall inventory is still high. On the demand side, the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand have continued to decline, and agricultural demand is expected to weaken again. The domestic urea market still has a clear oversupply, and export policies have not been relaxed beyond expectations. The spot price of the delivery product is 1840 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 67, with a premium - discount ratio of 3.6%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.186 million tons (+65,000 tons), indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Futures Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Leverage and Risks: Bullish factors include strong international prices; bearish factors include high daily production at the operating rate and weak domestic demand. The main logic is the marginal changes in international supply and domestic demand, and the main risk point is the change in export policies [5]. Spot and Futures Market - Spot Market: The spot price of the delivery product is 1840 (-10), Shandong spot is 1850 (-20), Henan spot is 1840 (0), and FOB China is 2581 [6]. - Futures Market: The price of the 09 contract is 1773 (0), UR01 is 1734 (0), and UR05 is 1738 (0). The basis of the UR09 contract is 67 (-10) [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea industry has seen continuous growth in production capacity, with growth rates ranging from 8.9% to 15.5%. Production, net imports, apparent consumption, and actual consumption have also shown various trends. For example, in 2024, production capacity reached 44.185 million tons with a growth rate of 13.5%, production was 34.25 million tons, net imports were 3.6 million tons, and apparent consumption was 37.85 million tons [10].
大越期货尿素早报-20250714
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-07-14 03:51