铁矿石早报（2025-7-14）-20250714

Summary of Key Points 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The overall supply and demand of iron ore are loose, with a decrease in port inventory. There are rumors of a crude steel production reduction policy, and the trade war has eased. The market is expected to be volatile with a slight upward trend, considering factors such as reduced domestic demand, decreased shipping volume, and domestic capacity - reduction plans [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - Steel mill hot metal production has started to decrease, and the monthly arrival level on the supply side has decreased. The overall supply - demand is loose, and port inventory has decreased [2]. 3.2 Basis Analysis - The spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 787, with a basis of 23; the spot price of Super Special powder at Qingdao Port converted to the futures price is 855, with a basis of 91. The spot is at a premium to the futures [2]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - Port inventory is 14,485.9 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year [2]. 3.4 Market Trend Analysis - The price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [2]. 3.5 Main Position Analysis - The net position of the main iron ore contract is short, and the short position is decreasing [2]. 3.6 Expectation Analysis - Domestic demand is decreasing, shipping volume is decreasing, and domestic capacity - reduction plans will impact the market. The market is expected to be volatile with a slight upward trend [2]. 3.7 Factors Analysis - Positive factors: High hot metal production, decreasing port inventory, and import losses [5]. - Negative factors: Increased future shipping volume and weak terminal demand [5].