Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2580 - 2640. It is affected by factors such as soybean meal trends, low rapeseed meal inventory, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. The short - term outlook is for range - bound trading [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - No information provided 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, improving the supply - tightness expectation in the spot market while demand remains strong [11]. - Canadian rapeseed annual production decreased slightly, supporting the overseas futures market. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is ongoing with uncertain results [11]. - Global rapeseed production decreased slightly this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production offset by the increase in Russian production. Global geopolitical conflicts may still rise, providing support for commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish Factors: China's tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal [12]. - Bearish Factors: Domestic rapeseed was listed in June, and there is uncertainty in the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports. Rapeseed meal demand is in the seasonal off - season [13]. - Main Logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand Balance Sheets: Domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheets from 2014 - 2023 are provided, showing changes in harvest area, production, inventory, and other indicators over the years [25][26]. - Price and Transaction Data: Data on the average transaction price and volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from July 2 to July 11 are presented, along with the price spread between them. Also, rapeseed meal futures and spot prices from July 3 to July 11 are provided [14][16]. - Other Data: Imported rapeseed arrivals in July were lower than expected, with slightly fluctuating import costs. Oil mill rapeseed inventory decreased slightly, while rapeseed meal inventory remained low. Oil mill rapeseed crushing volume fluctuated slightly. Aquatic fish prices fluctuated slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [27][29][39]. 5. Position Data - No information provided 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Fundamentals: Rapeseed meal rebounded with fluctuations, influenced by soybean meal trends and technical consolidation. Low oil mill operation rates and low rapeseed meal inventory support the market. Short - term demand for rapeseed meal is in the peak season. Although the arrival of imported rapeseed has increased, oil mill inventory has no short - term pressure. The short - term outlook is for range - bound trading. China's tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive, but the impact may be limited due to the lack of tariffs on rapeseed imports [9]. - Basis: The spot price is 2520, and the basis is - 113, indicating a discount to the futures, which is bearish [9]. - Inventory: Rapeseed meal inventory is 0.46 tons, down 58.18% week - on - week from 1.1 tons last week and 84.67% year - on - year from 3 tons last year, which is bullish [9]. - Disk: The price is above the 20 - day moving average but moving downward, which is neutral [9]. - Main Position: The main long positions decreased, and funds flowed out, which is bullish [9]. - Expectation: In the short term, rapeseed meal prices rose and then fell due to low imported rapeseed inventory and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. Influenced by soybean meal, rapeseed meal prices are expected to return to range - bound trading [9].
大越期货菜粕早报-20250714
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-07-14 05:10