大越期货豆粕早报-20250714

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Bean Meal: The US soybean market is experiencing a decline due to favorable weather conditions in the US soybean - growing regions, which have raised expectations of a bumper harvest. In the domestic market, bean meal has rebounded, influenced by the US soybean market and technical adjustments. However, the increase in imported soybeans in June and weak spot prices are suppressing the market. It is expected to trade in the range of 2920 - 2980 [8]. - Soybeans: The US soybean market is under pressure from good planting weather, and the domestic soybean market is in a weak oscillation. The increase in imported soybeans and the expectation of a new - season domestic soybean harvest are suppressing the market. The domestic soybean market is expected to be affected by the US - China tariff negotiations and the arrival of imported soybeans. The soybean A2509 is expected to trade in the range of 4040 - 4140 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - Bean Meal: The market is neutral, with a negative basis, an increase in inventory, a downward - trending price below the 20 - day moving average, an increase in long positions by the main players but capital outflows, and is expected to trade in a range [8]. - Soybeans: The market is neutral, with a positive basis, a decrease in inventory, a downward - trending price below the 20 - day moving average, an increase in short positions by the main players and capital inflows, and is expected to trade in a range [10]. 2. Recent News - The progress of the US - China tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further information on US soybean planting and the arrival of imported soybeans [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June. The domestic soybean and bean meal inventories have increased since May. The bean market has declined due to the fall in the US soybean market [12]. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for bean meal has weakened since May, but tight supply supports the post - holiday price. The bean meal market is in a weak oscillation [12]. - The low inventory of domestic oil - mill bean meal supports short - term prices. The bean meal market is expected to oscillate, waiting for the confirmation of South American soybean production and the progress of the US - China tariff negotiations [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - Bean Meal: Bullish factors include slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low domestic oil - mill bean meal inventory, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - growing regions. Bearish factors include a high volume of imported soybeans in June and a bumper harvest in South America [13]. - Soybeans: Bullish factors are the cost support of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand. Bearish factors are the expected bumper harvest in Brazil and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance: From 2015 - 2024, the harvest area, production, and total supply of soybeans have generally increased, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio has also shown an upward trend [30]. - Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance: From 2015 - 2024, the harvest area, production, and import volume of domestic soybeans have changed, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio has fluctuated [31]. 5. Position Data - Bean Meal Futures: The main players have increased their long positions, but there is capital outflow [8]. - Soybean Futures: The main players have increased their short positions, and there is capital inflow [10]. Other Information - Market Transactions: The bean meal futures market has returned to an oscillation, with the spot market relatively weak and a high - level spot discount. The bean - rapeseed meal spot price difference has shown small fluctuations, and the 2509 contract spread has remained oscillating [22][27]. - Inventory and Production: The soybean crushing volume of oil mills has remained high, and the bean meal production in June has increased year - on - year. The inventory of oil - mill soybeans and bean meal has continued to rise, and the unexecuted contracts of oil mills have increased significantly [24][44][46]. - Import and Cost: The arrival of imported soybeans has been postponed to June, with an overall increase. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans and the import soybean futures profit have shown small fluctuations [43][50]. - Livestock Market: The inventory of pigs and sows has increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month. The pig price has rebounded recently, while the piglet price has remained weak. The proportion of large pigs has decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has increased slightly. The domestic pig - farming profit has rebounded from a low level [52][54][56][58].