大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250714

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate is strong while the demand is weak due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The lithium carbonate 2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 63,640 - 64,920 [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production, a decline in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors are the continuous high - level supply from ore/salt lake ends with limited decline and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply - side: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 18,813 tons, a 3% month - on - month increase and 80% higher than the historical average. In June 2025, the production was 78,090 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 81,150 physical tons, a 3.92% increase [8]. - Demand - side: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 94,110 tons, a 0.48% month - on - month increase, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 16,071 tons, a 1.38% month - on - month increase. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced [8]. - Cost - side: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate is 62,979 yuan/ton, a 0.07% daily increase, with a loss of 104 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 68,253 yuan/ton, remaining the same daily, with a loss of 6,907 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end is close to that at the ore end, with average production enthusiasm, while the cash production cost at the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with a high profit margin and sufficient production motivation [8]. - Market indicators: The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 63,750 yuan/ton, the basis of the 09 contract is - 530 yuan/ton, indicating spot discount. The smelter inventory is 58,598 tons, higher than the historical average; the downstream inventory is 40,765 tons, a 0.66% month - on - month increase; other inventories are 41,430 tons, a 6.34% month - on - month increase; the total inventory is 140,793 tons, a 1.77% month - on - month increase, all higher than the historical average. The MA20 of the market is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closes above the MA20, showing a bullish trend. The net short position of the main contract is decreasing, showing a bearish trend [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Yesterday's Market Overview: The prices of lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and other related products showed different degrees of changes. For example, the price of lithium ore decreased by 0.16% - 0.71%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.16% [14]. - Lithium Carbonate Market Overview: Supply - side data shows changes in indicators such as weekly and monthly operating rates, processing costs, and production volumes. Demand - side data shows changes in indicators such as monthly production, export volume, and inventory of lithium iron phosphate and other products [17]. 3.3 Supply - Related - Lithium Ore: The price of spodumene (6%) increased by 0.15% to 674 US dollars/ton. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate decreased by 0.50% to 516,747 tons. The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore shows that the demand is high, and the balance is mostly negative [14][17][25]. - Lithium Carbonate: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate production from different sources (spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycled materials) showed different trends. The monthly production, import, and export volumes also changed. The supply - demand balance shows that there are periods of surplus and shortage [28][33]. - Lithium Hydroxide: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly operating rate, production, export volume, and supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide all showed corresponding changes [36][39]. 3.4 Cost - Profit of Lithium Compounds - The cost - profit of purchased spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and recycled materials for lithium carbonate production, as well as the cost - profit of lithium hydroxide processing, purification, and export, all showed different trends over time [42][45][48]. 3.5 Inventory - The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, including smelter inventory, downstream inventory, and total inventory, showed different degrees of changes, and most of them were higher than the historical average [50]. 3.6 Demand - Related - Lithium Battery: The price, production, shipment volume, export volume, and inventory of lithium batteries all showed corresponding changes. The production and shipment volume of power batteries and energy - storage batteries showed different trends [53][56]. - Ternary Precursor: The price, cost, profit, processing fee, capacity utilization rate, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors all showed corresponding changes [59][62]. - Ternary Material: The price, cost, profit, operating rate, production, import, export, and inventory of ternary materials all showed corresponding changes [65][68]. - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium: The price, production cost, profit, capacity, operating rate, production, export volume, and inventory of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium all showed corresponding changes [70][73]. - New Energy Vehicle: The production, export volume, sales volume, sales penetration rate, retail - wholesale ratio, and dealer inventory of new energy vehicles all showed corresponding changes [78][82].