大越期货聚烯烃周报-20250714

Report Title - Polyolefin Weekly Report, dated July 11, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Last week, L09 rose 0.12% to close at 7291, with a total position reduction of about 8100 lots; PP09 fell 0.13% to close at 7069, with a total position reduction of about 21000 lots. Technically, the recent main contracts of L and PP are running near the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral technical trend [5]. - The main position indicator among Dayue's five major indicators shows that the net positions of high - winning - rate seats for L and PP are both bearish recently [5]. - The basis of the L main contract is - 11, and that of the PP main contract is 111, with the discount of the futures price narrowing [5]. - Fundamentally, in June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months; the Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than that in May, and the same as in April, returning above the critical point. On July 5, OPEC issued an increase statement, increasing production for the fourth consecutive month [5]. - In terms of supply and demand, it is the off - season for PE agricultural films, and the downstream of packaging films remains weak. Most enterprises have reduced their loads, and the overall downstream demand is weak. There is still pressure from new capacity coming into production in the future. It is also the off - season for PP downstream demand, and the demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc. is weak. Internationally, attention should be paid to the subsequent negotiation situation between China and the United States. The inventory of the polyolefin industry chain is moderately high. This week, the main contracts of L and PP are expected to fluctuate [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance - Futures Price Changes: L01 rose 0.48%, L05 rose 0.29%, L09 rose 0.12%; PP01 rose 0.17%, PP05 rose 0.07%, PP09 fell 0.13% [6]. - Inventory Changes: For PE, the L delivery product price decreased by 50, PE comprehensive factory inventory increased by 54, and PE social inventory increased by 10; for PP, the PP delivery product price decreased by 70, PP comprehensive factory inventory increased by 11, and PP social inventory increased by 9 [6]. - Profit Changes: L oil - based production profit decreased by 46, L coal - based production profit decreased by 30; PP oil - based production profit decreased by 19, PP coal - based production profit increased by 21, and PDH profit decreased by 134 [6] 2. Charts - Futures - Spot Price and Basis: Charts show the futures - spot prices and basis of L and PP from 2023 to 2025 [9][12] - Warehouse Receipts: A chart shows the warehouse receipts of L and PP from 2023 to 2025 [15] - Inventory: Multiple charts show the comprehensive inventory, social inventory of PE and PP over time [21][24][27][30] - Operating Rates: Charts show the operating rates of PE and PP from January to December [33][36] - Profits: Charts show the production cash flows of PE (coal - chemical and oil - based) and PP (coal - chemical, oil - based, and PDH) from 2023 to 2025 [39][42] - External Prices: Charts show the internal - external price differences of polyolefins, and the US dollar prices of PE and PP over time [45][48][51] - Downstream: Charts show the average operating rates of PE and PP downstream industries from January to December [54][57] 3. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the capacity, production, net imports, apparent consumption, etc. of polyethylene are presented, with the capacity expected to reach 4319.5 in 2025E, a growth rate of 20.5% [17] - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the capacity, production, net imports, apparent consumption, etc. of polypropylene are presented, with the capacity expected to reach 4906 in 2025E, a growth rate of 11.0% [19]