Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The glass fundamentals remain weak. After the policy boost benefits are digested, the futures price is expected to face a callback risk. The glass is expected to mainly fluctuate at a low level, with potential risks of accelerated industry restart and under - expected macro and real - estate policies [3][8]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass Futures and Spot Weekly Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract FG2509 was 1086 yuan/ton, up 5.85% from the previous week. The spot benchmark price was 1092 yuan/ton, up 1.11%. The main basis was 6 yuan/ton, down 88.89% [2][9]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass sheets in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 1092 yuan/ton, up 1.11% from the previous week [15]. Fundamental Analysis Supply - The number of operating float glass production lines was 224, with an operating rate of 75.68%. The daily melting volume was 158,400 tons, at a historical low and showing signs of stabilization [3]. Demand - Affected by the macro - sentiment and some enterprises' price increases, the overall market rose. Some downstream enterprises made rigid - demand replenishments or small - quantity stockpiling, and the factory inventory decreased. As of July 10, the inventory of national float glass enterprises was 67.102 million weight boxes, down 2.87% from the previous week. However, the terminal real - estate demand remained weak [3]. Inventory - The national float glass enterprise inventory was 67.102 million weight boxes, down 2.87% from the previous week, and the inventory was running above the 5 - year average [45]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the production, consumption, and supply - demand differences of float glass showed different trends. For example, in 2024E, the production was 55.10 million tons, the consumption was 53.10 million tons, and the supply - demand difference was 1.51 million tons [46]. Influencing Factors Positive Factors - The negative feedback of production profit was obvious, and the glass output continued to decline to a historical low. The photovoltaic glass industry was expected to implement a production - cut plan, boosting market sentiment [6]. Negative Factors - The real - estate terminal demand remained weak, and the order volume of glass deep - processing enterprises was at a historical low. The capital return of the deep - processing industry was not optimistic, and traders and processors were cautious, mainly digesting the original glass inventory [7]. Main Logic - Glass supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period. It is the seasonal off - season for demand, and downstream enterprises purchase as needed. The glass factory inventory has continued to accumulate. Therefore, the glass is expected to mainly fluctuate at a low level [8].
大越期货玻璃周报-20250714
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-07-14 06:08