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大越期货沪铜周报-20250714
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-07-14 06:08

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai copper continued to decline, with the main contract of Shanghai copper falling 1.63% to close at 78,430 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariff issues affected copper prices, and there were still many global uncertainties. In China, consumption entered the off - season, and downstream consumption willingness was average. In the industrial sector, domestic spot trading was general, mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 108,725 tons, showing a slight increase last week, while SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,462 tons [4]. - The supply - demand balance of copper in 2024 is in a tight balance, and there will be an oversupply in 2025 [11]. 3) Summary by Directory a) Market Review - Shanghai copper continued to decline last week, with the main contract falling 1.63% to 78,430 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariff issues affected copper prices, and downstream consumption entered the off - season. Domestic spot trading was mainly for rigid demand. LME inventory increased slightly, and SHFE inventory decreased by 3,127 tons [4]. b) Fundamentals - PMI: No detailed information provided [9]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of copper in 2024 is in a tight balance, and there will be an oversupply in 2025. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows specific data from 2018 - 2024 [11][14]. - Inventory: LME copper inventory was 108,725 tons, showing a slight increase last week, while SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,462 tons. The bonded area inventory remained at a low level [4][18]. c) Market Structure - Processing Fees: Processing fees were at a low level [21]. - CFTC Positioning: CFTC non - commercial net long positions flowed out [23]. - Futures - Spot Price Difference: No detailed information provided [26]. - Import Profit: No detailed information provided [29]. - Warehouse Receipts: No detailed information provided.