菜粕周报：进口油菜籽到港低于预期，菜粕偏强震荡-20250714

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term "oscillating and slightly bullish" rating for rapeseed meal futures [13] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal oscillates and rebounds, influenced by soybean meal and technical consolidation. With low oil - mill operation and low inventory, and short - term peak demand, the market is in short - term range oscillation. The tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive, but the non - imposition of tariffs on rapeseed limits the positive impact. In the short term, rapeseed meal may rise and then fall due to low imported rapeseed inventory and the tariff, and return to range oscillation driven by soybean meal [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Hints - Rapeseed meal is expected to be influenced by low imported rapeseed inventory and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, rising and then falling, and returning to range oscillation due to soybean meal [8]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is in peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed improves the supply - tight expectation. The demand side has good expectations. Canadian rapeseed annual output decreases slightly, and China's tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, along with ongoing anti - dumping investigations on Canadian rapeseed imports, have uncertain future results. Global rapeseed output decreases slightly due to EU and Canadian production. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and geopolitical conflicts support commodities [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on oil - mill rapeseed meal [11]. - Bearish factors: The listing of domestic rapeseed in June; uncertainties in China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and seasonal low demand for rapeseed meal [12]. - Main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Rapeseed arrival: The arrival of imported rapeseed in July is lower than expected, and the import cost fluctuates slightly [20]. - Oil - mill crushing and inventory: Oil - mill rapeseed inventory drops slightly, rapeseed meal inventory remains low, and the rapeseed crushing volume fluctuates slightly [22][24]. - Rapeseed meal transaction: Rapeseed meal rebounds from the bottom, and the spot price fluctuates slightly following the futures, with a high - level spot discount [34]. - Aquaculture: Aquatic fish prices fluctuate slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices remain stable [32]. 3.5 Position Data - The main long positions decrease, and funds flow out [8]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Fundamentals: Rapeseed meal oscillates and rebounds, driven by soybean meal and technical consolidation. Low oil - mill operation and low inventory support the market. Spot demand is in peak season, and the arrival of imported rapeseed increases, but short - term inventory pressure is low. The tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive, but the non - imposition of tariffs on rapeseed limits the positive impact [8]. - Basis: The spot price is 2520, and the basis is - 113, indicating a discount to the futures [8]. - Inventory: Rapeseed meal inventory is 0.46 tons, a 58.18% week - on - week decrease from last week's 1.1 tons and an 84.67% year - on - year decrease from last year's 3 tons [8]. - Disk: The price is above the 20 - day moving average but moving downward [8]. - Main positions: The main long positions decrease, and funds flow out [8]. - Expectation: Rapeseed meal may rise and then fall in the short term due to low imported rapeseed inventory and the tariff, and return to range oscillation driven by soybean meal [8]. - Trading strategies: - Futures: Short - term oscillation is slightly bullish. RM2509 oscillates above 2500 in the short term. Short - term trading or waiting is recommended [13]. - Options: Wait and see [14]. 3.7 Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal rebounds and returns to range oscillation in the short and medium term, influenced by the listing of domestic rapeseed and good demand. Future Sino - Canadian trade relations and the follow - up impact of the Sino - US tariff war will affect the market. The KDJ indicator oscillates at a high level, and the short - term market is slightly bullish, but the upward space may be limited. The MACD rebounds, and the short - term market is slightly bullish, but the red energy is insufficient. The future trend depends on rapeseed import policies and soybean meal [43]. 3.8 Next Week's Concerns - Most important: The planting weather in US soybean - producing areas, Canadian rapeseed exports and domestic crushing demand, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China [46]. - Second - most important: Domestic soybean meal and aquaculture demand, domestic oil - mill rapeseed meal inventory, and downstream procurement [47]. - Less important: Macroeconomic factors and the Palestine - Israel conflict.