Sugar Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The global sugar supply is tending to be loose, pressuring the raw sugar. The market demand is weak, but the low inventory supports the spot price in Guangxi. Considering the increase in imports later, the domestic supply and demand are marginally loose. It is recommended to maintain a bearish view after the rebound and pay attention to the pressure at 5800 - 5900 [2]. Summary by Directory - Futures Market: The price of white sugar 2601 is 5632 yuan/ton, down 0.05%; the price of white sugar 2509 is 5810 yuan/ton, up 0.09%. The main contract holding volume increased by 4.46%, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 0.83% [1]. - Spot Market: The spot price in Nanning is 6060 yuan/ton, up 0.17%; the spot price in Kunming is 5905 yuan/ton, up 0.43%. The Nanning basis increased by 2.04%, and the Kunming basis increased by 26.67% [1]. - Industrial Situation: The national cumulative sugar production increased by 12.03% year-on-year, and the cumulative sales increased by 23.07% year-on-year. The industrial inventory in Guangxi decreased by 12.23% year-on-year, and the industrial inventory in Yunnan increased by 0.29% year-on-year [1][3]. Cotton Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The contradiction of tight commercial cotton inventory in the 2024/25 season is difficult to solve before the new cotton is listed, which still strongly supports the cotton price. In the short term, the domestic cotton price may fluctuate strongly in a stable range, and will be under pressure after the new cotton is listed in the long term [4]. Summary by Directory - Futures Market: The price of cotton 2509 is 13885 yuan/ton, up 0.14%; the price of cotton 2601 is 13820 yuan/ton, up 0.07%. The main contract holding volume increased by 0.80%, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 0.32% [4]. - Spot Market: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B is 15263 yuan/ton, up 0.58%; the CC Index of 3128B is 15266 yuan/ton, up 0.46%. The 3128B - 01 contract basis increased by 5.19%, and the 3128B - 05 contract basis increased by 5.71% [4]. - Industrial Situation: The commercial inventory decreased by 9.5% month-on-month, the industrial inventory decreased by 2.9% month-on-month, the import volume decreased by 33.3% month-on-month, and the bonded area inventory decreased by 8.9% month-on-month [4]. Egg Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The inventory of laying hens remains high, and the egg supply is sufficient. However, due to the high temperature, the egg weight and laying rate have declined, and the supply of large eggs is tight. The egg price has dropped to a phased low, and the demand is expected to increase. It is expected that the egg price may rise this week, but the increase may be limited [8]. Summary by Directory - Futures Market: The price of the egg 09 contract is 3580 yuan/500KG, up 0.06%; the price of the egg 08 contract is 3442 yuan/500KG, down 0.12%. The 9 - 8 spread increased by 4.55% [7]. - Spot Market: The egg production area price is 2.51 yuan/jin, up 1.39%. The basis increased by 3.95% [7]. - Industrial Situation: The price of day-old chicks remained unchanged, the price of culled hens decreased by 2.13%, the egg - feed ratio decreased by 4.37%, and the breeding profit decreased by 20.60% [7]. Oil Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View For palm oil, due to concerns about seasonal production growth, the futures price may face resistance and fall back. For soybean oil, the speculation on the US biodiesel theme has ended, and the market is affected by both positive and negative factors, showing a narrow - range shock adjustment [10]. Summary by Directory - Futures Market: The price of Y2509 is 7986, up 0.53%; the price of P2509 is 8682, up 0.51%; the price of 01509 is 9439, down 0.31% [10]. - Spot Market: The price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil is 8240, up 0.86%; the price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil is 8800, up 1.50%; the price of Jiangsu fourth - grade rapeseed oil is 9610, up 0.31% [10]. - Industrial Situation: The import profit of Malaysian palm oil increased, and the inventory of domestic palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil showed different trends [10]. Meal Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The weather in the US soybean producing areas is good, and the market is worried about the impact of US tariffs. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the开机 rate is improving. The soybean meal basis is stable, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand [11]. Summary by Directory - Futures Market: The price of M2509 is 2976, up 0.74%; the price of RM2509 is 2633, up 0.84%; the price of the soybean No. 1 main contract is 4101, down 0.10%; the price of the soybean No. 2 main contract is 3610, up 0.61% [11]. - Spot Market: The price of Jiangsu soybean meal is 2830, up 1.07%; the price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal is 2530, up 0.80%; the price of Harbin soybeans is 3960, unchanged; the price of Jiangsu imported soybeans is 3660, unchanged [11]. - Industrial Situation: The import profit of Brazilian soybeans in September increased, and the import profit of Canadian rapeseed in November decreased [11]. Corn Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the short term, the market sentiment is weak, but as the remaining grain decreases, the downward space for the corn price is limited. In the medium term, the tight supply and increasing consumption support the corn price. It is recommended to wait and see [13]. Summary by Directory - Futures Market: The price of corn 2509 is 2306, down 0.60%; the price of corn starch 2509 is 2656, down 0.78% [13]. - Spot Market: The Pingcang price in Jinzhou remained unchanged, the Shekou bulk grain price is 2430, down 0.41%, the Changchun spot price of corn starch is 2700, unchanged, and the Weifang spot price is 2920, unchanged [13]. - Industrial Situation: The import corn auction continued, the downstream deep - processing entered the seasonal maintenance period, and the wheat substitution squeezed the corn demand [13]. Pig Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The current breeding profit has returned to a low level, and the market is cautious about capacity expansion. The short - term sentiment is still strong, but the pressure on the 09 contract is increasing. Attention should be paid to the pressure above 14500 [18]. Summary by Directory - Futures Market: The price of the main contract decreased by 14.74%, the price of pig 2511 is 13645, down 0.37%, the price of pig 2509 is 14345, down 0.21%, and the 9 - 11 spread increased by 2.94% [17]. - Spot Market: The spot price of pigs fluctuated, with prices in different regions showing different degrees of decline [17]. - Industrial Situation: The slaughter volume increased by 0.59%, the white - striped pork price remained unchanged, the price of piglets decreased by 3.20%, the price of sows remained unchanged, the slaughter weight increased by 0.31%, the self - breeding profit increased by 11.82%, and the purchased - pig breeding profit increased by 220.34% [17].
《农产品》日报-20250714
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-07-14 08:33