大越期货甲醇早报-20250714

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of weak supply and demand, the adjustment range of inland methanol prices is expected to be limited this week. The methanol price is expected to fluctuate mainly, with MA2509 oscillating between 2350 - 2420 [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: In the port market, the intensifying situation in the Red Sea may provide some macro - level support. However, with the recovery of overseas plants, the subsequent fundamentals may gradually return to a pattern of relatively loose supply and demand. In the short term, the port methanol market is influenced by both positive and negative factors and is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern. In the inland market, most downstream industries have poor profitability or even sell at a loss. But the raw material methanol gap of major CTO plants in the northwest has widened, and some inland supplies can flow to the ports. Recently, methanol plants in the production areas have shut down intensively, providing some support on the supply side. Overall, the adjustment range of inland methanol prices is expected to be limited this week [5]. - Basis: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2400 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract is 30, with the spot price higher than the futures price [5]. - Inventory: As of July 10, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the ports of East and South China was 56.76 tons, an increase of 6.79 tons from the previous period. The overall available and tradable methanol supply in the coastal areas increased by 3.65 tons to 31.29 tons [5]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is below the moving average [5]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing [5]. - Expectation: The methanol price is expected to fluctuate this week, with MA2509 oscillating between 2350 - 2420 [5]. 3.2 Long - Short Concerns - Positive Factors: Some plants have shut down, such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya; the methanol operating rate in Iran has decreased, and the port inventory is at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen has started production on May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production in late July; major CTO plants in the northwest have an increased demand for raw material methanol [6]. - Negative Factors: Some previously shut - down plants have resumed production, such as Inner Mongolia Donghua; there is expected to be a concentrated arrival of ships at the ports in the second half of the month; the formaldehyde industry has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operating rate has declined significantly; coal - based methanol production has a certain profit margin, and producers are actively selling; due to poor sales, some plants in the production areas have accumulated inventory [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Price: The spot price of methanol in different regions has changed. For example, the price in Jiangsu decreased by 3.15% week - on - week to 2400 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price decreased by 1.21% week - on - week to 2370 yuan/ton [8][9][11]. - Spread Structure: The basis and various price spreads have changed. For example, the basis of Jiangsu - Shandong decreased by 22 yuan/ton to - 138 yuan/ton [8]. - Operating Rate: The operating rates in different regions have changed. For example, the operating rate in Shandong decreased by 2.39% to 68.71%, and the national weighted average operating rate decreased by 3.81% to 74.90% [8]. - Inventory: The inventory in the East and South China ports has increased, and the available and tradable supply in the coastal areas has also increased [5]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - Domestic Plants: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, including those in the northwest, north, east, and southwest regions. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat with a capacity of 100,000 tons/year has been under maintenance since November 2024, and the end date is to be determined [57]. - Overseas Plants: Some overseas methanol plants are in the process of restarting or operating normally. For example, some plants in Iran are reported to be in the process of resuming production, and some plants in Saudi Arabia and Malaysia are operating normally [58].