苹果产业日报-20250714

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Summer sees a large influx of summer fruits, which impacts apple demand and slows down the sales pace However, the current inventory is at a five - year low, strongly supporting prices, so the market is expected to show a slightly bullish and volatile trend Follow - up attention should be paid to the production situation [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 7,838 yuan/ton, with a change of 24 The closing price of the October contract is also 7,838 yuan/ton, with a change of 24 The main contract's open interest is 94,201 lots, a decrease of 8,538 The number of warehouse receipts is 0 The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 8,023 lots, a decrease of 526 [2] Spot Market - In Shandong Yantai Qixia, the spot price of bagged apples (above 80) is 4 yuan/jin In Gansu Jingning, the spot price of bagged apples (above 75) is 4 yuan/jin In Shandong Yiyuan, the spot price of bagged apples (above 75) is 2.4 yuan/jin In Shaanxi Luochuan, the spot price of bagged apples (above 70) is 4 yuan/jin [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple orchard area is 1,955.77 thousand hectares, a decrease of 19.58 The national apple production is 5,128.51 tons, an increase of 168.34 tons [2] Industry Situation - The weekly wholesale price of apples is 9.76 yuan/kg, with a change of 0.03 The national total cold - storage inventory of apples is 91.49 tons, a decrease of 7.82 tons The average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.66 yuan/kg, with a change of 0.12 The storage ratio in Shandong is 0.13, a decrease of 0.01 The storage ratio in Shaanxi is 0.06, a decrease of 0.01 The monthly export volume of apples is 50,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons The monthly export value of apples is 5,152.5 million US dollars, a decrease of 2,552.9 million US dollars The monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is not specified The profit of storage merchants for first - and second - grade bagged apples (80) is 0.9 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.1 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines is 9.12 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.28 The weekly wholesale price of pears is 6.73 yuan/kg, with a change of - 0.8 The weekly wholesale price of bananas is 6.33 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.14 The weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 3.93 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 The average daily early - morning arrival of trucks at the Jiangmen wholesale market in Guangdong is 7.8, with no change The average daily early - morning arrival of trucks at the Xiaqiao wholesale market in Guangdong is 11 The average daily early - morning arrival of trucks at the Chalong wholesale market in Guangdong is 19.4, a decrease of 0.6 [2] Options Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 16.75%, a decrease of 0.21 The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 16.74%, a decrease of 0.18 [2] Industry News - On July 14, 2025, inventory trading in production areas showed slight improvement, with more inquiring and purchasing merchants In the western production areas, large companies in cold storage were relatively active in packaging and purchasing, and the transaction price rebounded In Shandong, transactions were mostly negotiated, and the market price was chaotic The preliminary estimate of the national apple production in the new season is 3,736.64 tons, an increase of 85.93 tons (2.35%) compared to the 2024 - 2025 season [2] Viewpoint Summary - As of July 9, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main production areas was 91.49 tons, a decrease of 7.81 tons from the previous week The sales speed was not much different from the previous week and was still slower than the same period last year The storage ratio in Shandong was 13.21%, a decrease of 0.77% from the previous week, and the de - stocking speed was slower than the same period last year The storage ratio in Shaanxi was 5.72%, a decrease of 0.71% from the previous week, and the sales were slightly faster than the previous week [2]