瑞达期货锰硅硅铁产业日报-20250714

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For silicon ferroalloy on July 14, the 2509 contract closed at 5484, down 0.69%. With low - level operation of production, falling Ningxia semi - coke price at the cost end, and generally weak steel demand expectations. The production profit of ferroalloys is negative, with Inner Mongolia's spot profit at - 260 yuan/ton and Ningxia's at - 150 yuan/ton. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is above the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - For manganese silicon on July 14, the 2509 contract closed at 5782, up 0.14%. Fundamentally, the manufacturers' operating rate has rebounded for 7 consecutive weeks at a low level, with moderately high inventory. At the cost end, the port inventory of imported manganese ore increased by 260,000 tons this period, and the downstream hot metal output declined slightly from a high level. The steel mills' procurement is cautious, and the tender price continues to fall. The 4 - hour cycle K - line is above the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - SM main contract closing price was 5,782 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan; SF main contract closing price was 5,484 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan [2]. - SM futures contract open interest was 564,686 lots, down 20,651 lots; SF futures contract open interest was 407,541 lots, down 25,104 lots [2]. - Manganese silicon's top 20 net open interest was - 53,987 lots, down 8,192 lots; silicon ferroalloy's top 20 net open interest was - 53,844 lots, down 4,873 lots [2]. - SM 1 - 9 month contract spread was 40 yuan/ton, unchanged; SF 1 - 9 month contract spread was 74 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [2]. - SM warehouse receipts were 84,776, down 261; SF warehouse receipts were 21,950, up 1,431 [2]. Spot Market - Inner Mongolia and Guizhou's manganese silicon FeMn68Si18 were both 5,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; Yunnan's was 5,550 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia's silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B was 5,360 yuan/ton, Qinghai's was 5,250 yuan/ton, and Ningxia's was 5,330 yuan/ton, all unchanged [2]. - Manganese silicon index average was 5,579 yuan/ton, up 48 yuan; SF main contract basis was - 154 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan; SM main contract basis was - 182 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - South African ore: Mn38 lump at Tianjin Port was 35 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; silica (98% in Northwest) was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai's secondary metallurgical coke was 850 yuan/ton, unchanged; semi - coke (medium material in Shenmu) was 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Manganese ore port inventory was 4.327 million tons, up 77,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - Manganese silicon enterprises' operating rate was 40.55%, up 0.21%; silicon ferroalloy enterprises' operating rate was 31.20%, down 0.75% [2]. - Manganese silicon supply was 182,280 tons, up 2,170 tons; silicon ferroalloy supply was 98,700 tons, down 1,500 tons [2]. - Manganese silicon manufacturers' inventory was 222,300 tons, up 500 tons; silicon ferroalloy manufacturers' inventory was 67,000 tons, down 2,400 tons [2]. - Manganese silicon's national steel mill inventory was 15.15 days, down 0.29 days; silicon ferroalloy's national steel mill inventory was 15.20 days, down 0.24 days [2]. Downstream Situation - Five major steel types' manganese silicon demand was 124,928 tons, down 1,861 tons; five major steel types' silicon ferroalloy demand was 20,167.3 tons, down 314.4 tons [2]. - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate was 83.44%, down 0.40%; 247 steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.27%, down 0.58% [2]. - Crude steel output was 86.545 million tons, up 526,000 tons [2]. Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a large - scale equipment renewal and technological transformation project for the manufacturing industry, accelerate digital transformation, and promote green and low - carbon development [2]. - In the coming week, high - temperature weather will intensify in many places, with nearly 10 provinces facing temperatures above 40°C from July 14 - 16 [2]. - Putin revealed that the root of Russia - West contradictions is geopolitics, not Soviet ideology [2]. - The EU proposed three supply - chain proposals for "risk reduction", aiming to reduce dependence on China [2]. - Trump announced that the US will impose a 30% tariff on products from Mexico and the EU starting from August 1, 2025 [2].