瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20250714

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a PVC industry daily report dated July 14, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 5010 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 30 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 1033615 lots, a decrease of 198725 lots. The open interest is 956791 lots, a decrease of 10556 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 8696 lots, an increase of 3254 lots [3] Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5025 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4888.85 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.69 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5030 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4949.38 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.5 yuan/ton. The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 dollars/ton (unchanged), and the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 660 dollars/ton (unchanged). The FOB price in Northwest Europe is 750 dollars/ton (unchanged). The basis of PVC is - 160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton [3] Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2650 yuan/ton (unchanged), in North China is 2630 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Northwest China is 2388 yuan/ton (unchanged). The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is 50.5 yuan/ton (unchanged). The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East is 503 dollars/ton, a decrease of 21 dollars/ton, and in Southeast Asia is 548 dollars/ton, a decrease of 16 dollars/ton. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East is 211 dollars/ton, an increase of 27 dollars/ton, and in Southeast Asia is 219 dollars/ton, an increase of 31 dollars/ton [3] Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 76.97%, a decrease of 0.47%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 79.21%, a decrease of 1.59%. The operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 71.02%, an increase of 2.48%. The total social inventory of PVC is 39.27 tons, an increase of 1.96 tons. The social inventory in East China is 34.98 tons, an increase of 1.95 tons, and in South China is 4.29 tons, an increase of 0.01 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 93.72, a decrease of 0.14. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 23183.61 million square meters, an increase of 5347.77 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area is 625019.54 million square meters, an increase of 4704.49 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment is 19154.81 billion yuan, an increase of 4281.68 billion yuan [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 15.35%, an increase of 0.09%. The 40 - day historical volatility is 14.64%, a decrease of 0.69%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.53%, a decrease of 0.19%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.45%, a decrease of 0.28% [3] Group 3: Industry News - On July 14, the spot exchange price of PVCSG5 in Changzhou decreased by 10 - 40 yuan/ton compared to last Friday, with the price ranging from 4810 to 4910 yuan/ton [3] - From July 5th to 11th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 76.97%, a decrease of 0.47% compared to the previous period [3] - As of July 10th, the large - sample statistical social inventory of PVC increased by 5.37% to 62.36 tons compared to the previous period, a year - on - year decrease of 34.15% [3] Group 4: Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the supply of ethylene - based PVC may increase due to the lifting of the ban on US ethane exports, leading to a potential decline in costs. In July, domestic PVC plants are undergoing concentrated maintenance, and some plants are scheduled to restart and new plants are planned to be put into operation, which may increase the supply in the medium - to - long - term. The domestic downstream is in the off - season, and the Indian market demand is suppressed by the rainy season. The anti - dumping policy may be implemented this month. With the digestion of previous macro - positive factors, the upside potential of PVC prices is limited under the weak supply - demand situation. The V2509 contract is expected to pay attention to the support around 4935 yuan/ton and the resistance around 5050 yuan/ton [3]