Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Corn: Internationally, the high excellent rate of US corn in the early growth stage keeps the output outlook high, continuously pressuring international corn prices. Domestically, with the continuous auction of imported corn, the transaction rate and premium have decreased, and market sentiment has cooled. The high - temperature weather in summer is unfavorable for grain storage, increasing traders' shipping enthusiasm and slightly increasing market grain sources. Wheat has an obvious feed substitution advantage, reducing corn feed demand. Corn futures prices have recently fallen from high - level oscillations, showing overall weakness [2]. - Corn Starch: Affected by continuous production losses of corn starch enterprises, the industry's operating rate remains at a low level in recent years, significantly reducing supply pressure. However, the demand in the civilian and paper - making markets is poor, and downstream demand has entered the traditional off - season, with slightly slower downstream pick - up. Supply and demand remain loose. Recently, starch has also shown overall weak oscillations due to the decline in corn prices [2][3]. 3. Directory Summaries 3.1 Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2302 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2647 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan. - Corn monthly spread (9 - 1) is 64 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; corn starch monthly spread (9 - 11) is 38 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan. - Corn futures holding volume (active contract) is 1017804 hands, down 13096 hands; corn starch futures holding volume (active contract) is 255773 hands, up 7909 hands. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn are - 13789 hands, up 17113 hands; for corn starch are - 13753 hands, down 4247 hands. - Registered warehouse receipts for yellow corn are 194126 hands, down 2353 hands; for corn starch are 18899 hands, down 3080 hands. - The spread between the main CS - C contracts is 345 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. 3.2 Outer - market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 412.25 cents/bushel, down 4.25 cents. - CBOT corn total holding is 1498964 contracts, up 297 contracts. - Non - commercial net long positions of CBOT corn are - 141762 contracts, up 13764 contracts [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2417.45 yuan/ton, down 4.12 yuan. - The factory - quoted price of corn starch in Changchun is 2700 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Weifang is 2920 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shijiazhuang is 2860 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The average import cost of imported corn is 1884.32 yuan/ton, down 1.15 yuan. - The international freight for imported corn is 43 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - The basis of the main corn contract is 115.45 yuan/ton, down 0.12 yuan; the basis of the main corn starch contract is 53 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan. - The spread between Shandong starch and corn is 410 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn production in the US is 401.85 million tons, in Brazil is 131 million tons, in Argentina is 53 million tons, in China is 295 million tons, and in Ukraine is 30.5 million tons. - The predicted sown area of corn in the US is 35.37 million hectares, in Brazil is 22.6 million hectares, in Argentina is 7.5 million hectares, and in China is 44.3 million hectares [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Corn inventory in southern ports is 88.6 tons, down 15.5 tons; deep - processing corn inventory is 443.6 tons, up 8.2 tons. - The monthly import volume of corn is 353.19 tons, down 17 tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 27.78 tons, up 4.06 tons. - The monthly output of feed is 2762.1 tons, up 98.1 tons. - The weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 133.7 tons, up 2.4 tons [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - The average feed corn inventory days of samples is 31.58 days, down 0.38 days. - Deep - processing corn consumption is 115.78 tons, down 1.85 tons. - The operating rate of alcohol enterprises is 42.96%, down 1.92%; the operating rate of starch enterprises is 50.14%, down 1.06%. - The processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 105 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; in Hebei is - 8 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan; in Jilin is - 73 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2]. 3.7 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 6.58%, down 0.12%; the 60 - day historical volatility of corn is 7.02%, down 0.01%. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 9.02%, down 0.3%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn is 9.02%, down 0.3% [2]. 3.8 Industry News - US President Trump announced on the 9th that starting from August 1st, a 50% tariff will be imposed on all goods imported from Brazil, which will have a major impact on the agricultural product trade between the two countries. - Brazilian agricultural meteorological agency Rural Clima said that due to the prediction of a possible La Nina phenomenon by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on July 10th, Brazil's new crop sowing season may be affected by La Nina, but the climate may return to a neutral state after spring. - As of the week ending July 6, 2025, the excellent rate of US corn was 74%, higher than the market - expected 73%, 73% in the previous week, and 68% in the same period last year [2].
瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20250714
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-14 11:35