瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20250714

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term urea operating rate may remain high due to the resumption of production of previously overhauled units and relatively high production profits. The country is gradually entering the off - season of agricultural demand, with only a small amount of local agricultural top - dressing demand. The autumn pre - sales of compound fertilizer enterprises are good, leading to an increase in the operating rate and procurement. The melamine operating rate has rebounded, but weak downstream demand may limit its further increase. Recently, the shipment of urea factories has shown obvious differences, and inventory changes vary. The overall inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to decline last week, and some factories are still fulfilling previous export orders. However, this week, the industrial demand is expected to weaken further, the increase in agricultural demand is decreasing, and the execution of previous export orders is approaching the end, so the overall de - stocking speed of urea may slow down. The Indian urea tender price far exceeds market expectations, boosting domestic market confidence. Short - term attention should be paid to the release time, quantity, and allocated enterprises of the second batch of urea export quotas. The UR2509 contract is recommended to trade in the range of 1750 - 1800 yuan [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Zhengzhou urea contract is 1764 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is 33 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the position of the main contract is 197,992 lots, up 206 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 21,957; the exchange warehouse receipts are 2630 sheets, down 15 sheets [2] Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the price in Hebei is 1810 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Henan, it is 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it is 1860 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shandong, it is 1820 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; in Anhui, it is 1860 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the main Zhengzhou urea contract is 56 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan. The FOB price in the Baltic Sea is 427.5 dollars/ton, up 32.5 dollars; the FOB price at the main Chinese port is 410 dollars/ton, up 27.5 dollars [2] Industrial Situation - Port inventory is 48.9 million tons, up 4.9 million tons; enterprise inventory is 96.77 million tons, down 5.08 million tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 85.26%, up 0.94 percentage points; the daily urea output is 197,400 tons, up 2200 tons. The urea export volume is 0. The monthly urea output is 6,031,340 tons, down 261,890 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 29.83%, up 0.58 percentage points; the melamine operating rate is 62.56%, down 0.43 percentage points. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 134 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is - 646 yuan/ton, down 216 yuan. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.1682 billion tons, down 640,800 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 31,000 tons, down 300 tons [2] Industry News - As of July 9, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 96.77 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.08 million tons or 4.99%. As of July 10, the domestic methanol - to - olefins plant capacity utilization rate was 85.94%, a week - on - week increase of 0.55 percentage points. As of July 10, China's urea output was 1.3818 billion tons, an increase of 1530 tons or 1.12% from the previous week, with an average daily output of 197,400 tons, an increase of 2200 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 85.26%, a week - on - week increase of 0.94 percentage points [2] Suggested Focus - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2]