大越期货螺卷早报-20250715

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For Threaded Steel (Rebar): The demand shows no improvement, with low - level inventory slightly decreasing. Traders' purchasing willingness remains weak, and the downstream real - estate industry is in a downward cycle. However, considering factors such as low inventory, positive basis, and price above the 20 - day line, it should be treated with a volatile and slightly bullish mindset [2]. - For Hot - Rolled Coil: Both supply and demand have weakened, inventory continues to decline, and exports are blocked. Although there are some positive factors like positive basis and price above the 20 - day line, due to the weakening market situation and export obstacles, it should also be treated with a volatile and slightly bullish mindset [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Threaded Steel (Rebar) - Fundamentals: Demand is poor, inventory is at a low level and slightly decreasing, and the downstream real - estate industry is in a downward cycle; bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price of rebar is 3210, and the basis is 72; bullish [2]. - Inventory: The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 359.49 million tons, decreasing both month - on - month and year - on - year; bullish [2]. - Disk: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward; bullish [2]. - Main Position: The main position of rebar is net short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [2]. - Likely Influencing Factors: Positive factors include low production and inventory levels and spot premium. Negative factors are the continuous downward cycle of the downstream real - estate industry and weak terminal demand lower than the same period [2][3]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamentals: Both supply and demand have weakened, inventory continues to decline, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may play a role; neutral [6]. - Basis: The spot price of hot - rolled coil is 3300, and the basis is 24; bullish [6]. - Inventory: The inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 267.75 million tons, increasing month - on - month but decreasing year - on - year; neutral [6]. - Disk: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward; bullish [6]. - Main Position: The main position of hot - rolled coil is net short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [6]. - Likely Influencing Factors: Positive factors are fair demand and spot premium. Negative factors are that downstream demand has entered a seasonal off - season with a pessimistic outlook [8][9].