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焦煤焦炭早报(2025-7-15)-20250715
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-07-15 01:17

Report Overview - The report is a daily report on coking coal and coke futures released by Dayue Futures on July 15, 2025, providing market analysis and price trends [1][2][6] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Coking Coal: Some coal mines have reduced their production due to safety inspections. With positive expectations in the coke market, the demand for coking coal is strong, and coal mines are actively destocking. The prices of some scarce and high - cost - effective coal types are stable after the increase, and there may be a further price increase. The downstream steel and coke enterprises have low inventories and strong replenishment demand. In the short term, the coking coal price is expected to remain stable [2] - Coke: Currently, coke enterprises have thin profits, with some in losses and still in a production - restricted state. However, the demand from steel mills is strong, and intermediate speculative traders are actively purchasing. Coke enterprises are shipping smoothly, and their inventories are rapidly decreasing, resulting in a tight supply. In the short term, coke prices are expected to be stable with an upward trend [6] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views - Coking Coal - Fundamentals: Some coal mines' production has declined due to safety inspections. The demand is good, and coal mines are destocking. There may be a price increase for some coal types [2] - Basis: The spot price is 940, and the basis is 20, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2] - Inventory: The total sample inventory is 1775.5 million tons, a decrease of 19.3 million tons from last week [2] - Market: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [2] - Main Position: The main position of coking coal is net short, and short positions are increasing [2] - Expectation: The short - term price is expected to remain stable [2] - Coke - Fundamentals: Coke enterprises have thin profits, some are in losses and restricting production. The demand from steel mills is good, and inventories are decreasing rapidly [6] - Basis: The spot price is 1420, and the basis is - 99.5, indicating that the spot price is lower than the futures price [6] - Inventory: The total sample inventory is 933.2 million tons, a decrease of 15.2 million tons from last week [6] - Market: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [6] - Main Position: The main position of coke is net short, and short positions are decreasing [6] - Expectation: The short - term price is expected to be stable with an upward trend [6] 2. Factors Affecting Prices - Coking Coal - Positive: The increase in hot metal production and the difficulty in increasing supply [4] - Negative: The slowdown in the procurement of raw coal by coke and steel enterprises and the weak steel prices [4] - Coke - Positive: The increase in hot metal production and the synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [8] - Negative: The squeeze on the profit margin of steel mills and the partial over - exhaustion of replenishment demand [8] 3. Price - The report provides the spot price quotes of imported Russian and Australian coking coal on July 14, 2025, including various coal types such as main coking coal, 1/3 coking coal, and fat coal, along with price changes [9] 4. Inventory - Port Inventory: The coking coal port inventory is 312 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from last week; the coke port inventory is 203.1 million tons, a decrease of 11.1 million tons from last week [18] - Independent Coke Enterprise Inventory: The coking coal inventory of independent coke enterprises is 669.5 million tons, a decrease of 21.4 million tons from last week; the coke inventory is 87.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.1 million tons from last week [21] - Steel Mill Inventory: The coking coal inventory of steel mills is 774 million tons, an increase of 3.1 million tons from last week; the coke inventory is 642.8 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons from last week [24] 5. Other Data - Coke Oven Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises nationwide is 74%, unchanged from last week [35] - Average Profit per Ton of Coke: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 46 yuan, a decrease of 27 yuan from last week [39]