大越期货天胶早报-20250715

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, foreign spot is strong, domestic inventory is rising, and tire operating rates are at a high level, presenting a neutral situation [4]. - The market is dominated by sentiment, and short - term trading is recommended [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Daily Tips - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with supply increasing, foreign spot strong, domestic inventory rising, and high tire operating rates [4]. - The basis is - 110 (spot price is 14250), showing a bearish signal [4]. - Exchange inventory decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while Qingdao area inventory increased week - on - week and year - on - year, overall neutral [4]. - The price is above the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is upward, showing a bullish signal [4]. - The main position is net short and short positions are increasing, showing a bearish signal [4]. Fundamental Data Supply and Demand - Downstream consumption is at a high level, raw material prices are strong, and spot prices are resistant to decline, which are bullish factors [6]. - Supply is increasing and the external environment is bearish, which are bearish factors [6]. Spot Price - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) decreased on July 14 [8]. Inventory - Exchange inventory has changed little recently [14]. - Qingdao area inventory has changed little recently [17]. Import - Import volume has seasonally declined [20]. Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales have seasonally rebounded [23][26]. - Tire production is at a record high for the same period [29]. - Tire industry exports are seasonally increasing [32]. Basis - The basis widened on July 14 [35].