Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The copper market is affected by the 50% tariff on US copper imports announced by Trump. The US copper inventory is high, and the CL spread does not need to fully price the 50% tariff in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the exemption situation of some countries, and the low inventory in China and LME may rebound in the third quarter [1]. - The aluminum supply increases slightly, the demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, and the supply and demand are expected to be balanced. The short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and attention should be paid to the demand and low - inventory trading opportunities [1]. - The zinc price fluctuates widely. The supply is expected to increase, the demand is seasonally weak, and there is a risk of a short squeeze in overseas LME inventory. The strategy is to short zinc, hold long - short positions between domestic and overseas markets, and pay attention to positive spreads between months [2]. - The nickel supply is at a high level, the demand is weak, and the inventory situation is mixed. After the cancellation of the Philippine ore export ban plan, the short - term fundamentals are average, and opportunities for the contraction of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continued to be monitored [7]. - The stainless - steel supply has been reduced, the demand is mainly for rigid needs, the cost is stable, and the inventory has increased slightly. The short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile [11]. - The lead price has a slight correction. The supply and demand are both weak, and the market's peak - season expectation needs to be verified. It is expected to oscillate within the range of 17,100 - 17,500 next week [13]. - The tin price fluctuates widely. The supply may decline slightly, the demand is expected to slow down, and the inventory situation is different at home and abroad. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [15]. - The production of industrial silicon may decline, the supply and demand are expected to shift to destocking, and the price is expected to oscillate if the start - up rate does not recover significantly [19]. - The price of lithium carbonate futures has rebounded from a low level. The short - term supply and demand are both strong, and the absolute price is expected to oscillate, with a downward inflection point depending on significant inventory accumulation [21]. Summary by Metal Copper - The US has imported over 860,000 tons of copper in 2025, filling the annual rigid import gap. The CL spread does not need to fully price the 50% tariff in the short - term [1]. - If South American countries are not exempted from the tariff, it will seriously impact their copper exports, especially Chile and Peru. The logistics of incremental exports to the US may shift to Asia and Europe [1]. - After the tariff is implemented, the copper siphoning and rush - shipping effects in the US will end, and the low inventory in China and LME may rebound in the third quarter [1]. Aluminum - Supply has a slight increase from January to May due to aluminum ingot imports. Demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, with flat supply and demand [1]. - The short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory trading opportunities [1]. Zinc - In July, domestic TC has increased by 200 yuan/ton compared to June, and imported TC has a slight increase. The zinc ingot output is expected to increase by over 5,000 tons [2]. - Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas European demand is also weak, but there are some production resistances for some refineries [2]. - Domestic social inventory is rising, and overseas LME inventory has been decreasing since May, with a risk of a short squeeze when the inventory is below 100,000 tons [2]. Nickel - Pure nickel production remains at a high level, and nickel bean imports increased in May. Demand is weak overall, and LME premiums have a slight increase [7]. - Overseas nickel plate inventory is stable, and domestic inventory has a slight decrease. After the cancellation of the Philippine ore export ban plan, short - term fundamentals are average [7]. Stainless Steel - Since late May, some steel mills have reduced production passively. Demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the cost is stable [11]. - Inventory in Xijiao and Foshan has increased slightly, and some exchange warehouse receipts have expired and decreased. The short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile [11]. Lead - The lead price has a slight correction. The supply side has issues such as low scrap battery recovery and tight raw materials, and the demand side has high battery inventory and weak start - up rates [13]. - The market's peak - season expectation needs to be verified, and it is expected to oscillate within the range of 17,100 - 17,500 next week [13]. Tin - The tin price fluctuates widely. The domestic smelting output may decline slightly in July - August due to low processing fees and upcoming maintenance [15]. - The demand is expected to slow down, with a decline in the growth rate of terminal electronics and photovoltaics. Domestic inventory is rising, and overseas LME inventory is at a low level but showing signs of accumulation [15]. Industrial Silicon - The overall production in July and subsequent months is expected to decline due to the significant reduction in production by Hesheng. The supply and demand are expected to shift to destocking [19]. - The basis has strengthened rapidly, stimulating downstream speculative and restocking sentiment. If the start - up rate does not recover significantly, the price is expected to oscillate [19]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price has rebounded from a low level due to factors such as warehouse receipts, supply - side news, and improved weak - demand expectations [21]. - The short - term supply and demand are both strong, and the absolute price is expected to oscillate, with a downward inflection point depending on significant inventory accumulation [21].
有色早报-20250715
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-07-15 01:37