花旗：中国经济_为中期做准备-年中政治局展望

Investment Rating - The report maintains a low expectation for cyclical policy changes in the upcoming mid-year Politburo meeting, indicating a cautious investment outlook for the industry [3][4][5]. Core Insights - Policymakers are likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach while leaving room for small-scale support measures, particularly a potential quasi-fiscal stimulus of approximately RMB500 billion [3][6][8]. - The focus on anti-involution initiatives suggests a shift towards Supply Side Reform 2.0, with expected actions to cut low-efficient capacity and enhance supply for higher-end products [4][5]. - The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Party Congress may provide high-level guidance on the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing strategic planning over numeric targets [5][6]. Summary by Sections Policy Tools - Monetary policy is expected to include a 10 basis points cut in the policy rate and a 50 basis points reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) [6][7]. - Structural policy tools will likely be reactivated, with a focus on a size of approximately RMB500 billion for policy-finance instruments [6][7]. - Fiscal policies will not see an interim budget revision or an increase in government bond quotas, but will include continued trade-in policies, childcare subsidies, and further property support [6][7]. Supply Side Reform - The report anticipates various actions across sectors, including capacity cuts, regulation tightening, and fine-tuning of industrial policies [4][7]. - The emphasis on medium-term structural issues will likely include discussions on economic rebalancing, particularly in consumption and industrial policies [5][6].