摩根士丹利：解读日本金融行业

Investment Ratings - Banks: In-Line [3] - Insurance: Attractive [3] - Brokers & Other Financials: Cautious [3] Core Insights - The Japanese financial industry is experiencing a new cycle in global corporate and investment banking (CIB) business, with significant revenue opportunities in wealth management and the mass affluent space [7] - The insurance sector is focusing on acquiring new premiums and product development while addressing latent losses from rising long-term interest rates [7] - The competition in the financial sector is intensifying due to new entrants, particularly in the digital banking space [7][60] Summary by Category Banks - Earnings improvement in domestic banking is expected to be gradual, with a focus on capital allocation and unwinding cross-shareholdings [7] - Major banks are projecting consolidated net profits (NP) for F3/26, with Sumitomo Mitsui FG at JPY 1,300 billion (up 10.4% YoY) and Mizuho FG at JPY 940 billion (up 6.2% YoY) [9] - The overall loan and deposit trends indicate a consistent demand for financing in real estate capital expenditures, maintaining above JPY 3 trillion [34] Insurance - The insurance sector is addressing challenges from rising interest rates and focusing on capital policies that balance growth investments with shareholder returns [7][10] - Tokio Marine HD is projecting a decrease in consolidated adjusted profit to JPY 1,100 billion for F3/26, down 9.5% YoY [10] - The property and casualty insurance sector is also capturing growth opportunities overseas through mergers and acquisitions [7] Brokers & Other Financials - The global capital market cycle is influencing the performance of brokers, with a notable shift of individuals moving from savings to investing [7] - Nomura HD is projecting a consolidated NP of JPY 340.7 billion for F3/25, with a return on equity (ROE) of 10% [9] - The digital banking landscape is evolving, with Rakuten Bank leading in customer acquisition and deposits, reaching JPY 11,476 billion as of March 2025 [60]