摩根大通：中国房地产_又一轮由投机驱动的上涨，但对新政策支持的期望确实在上升

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for specific companies in the property sector, including CR Land, CR Mixc, and Longfor, while identifying distressed names like Sunac as potential outperformers in a speculation-driven rally [1][27]. Core Insights - The property sector experienced a 6% increase on July 10 due to speculation about a potential high-level meeting aimed at reviving the struggling market. However, if no concrete measures are announced, profit-taking is expected [1][4]. - The report highlights a worsening property market, with top 100 developers' sales in June dropping 26% year-on-year, indicating a significant decline compared to previous years [5][17]. - There are rising hopes for new policy support in the coming months, driven by the deteriorating property data, which may lead to tactical buying opportunities, especially during dips [1][5]. Summary by Sections Market Speculation - Speculation about a high-level meeting to support the property sector has emerged, but the accuracy of such reports has historically been low, with only a 40-45% verification rate [4][12]. - The last Central City Work Conference was held in 2015, focusing on urbanization rather than directly boosting the property market [4][14]. Property Market Data - The primary market is showing significant declines, with a 26% year-on-year drop in sales for top developers in June, marking the second worst performance since 2021 [5][17]. - Home prices in tier-1 cities have also declined, with a month-on-month drop of 1.21% in June, mirroring declines seen before previous policy support announcements [5][19]. Potential Policy Directions - The report outlines four levels of potential policy support, with Level 1 and Level 2 being more likely in the near term, focusing on easing home purchase restrictions and expanding inventory purchases [6][7]. - Level 3 and Level 4 policies, which would be more effective but less likely, include calls for home price stabilization and a national stimulus program [8][9]. Company Recommendations - The report identifies CR Land, CR Mixc, and Longfor as fundamental top picks, while suggesting that POE survivors and small-cap SOEs like Jinmao offer the best risk-reward balance [1][27]. - Distressed companies such as Sunac may outperform in a speculation-driven environment, although this performance is likely to be unsustainable [1].