汇丰：又一轮关税_谁受影响及对全球贸易的冲击

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The US has announced new tariffs on imports from various economies, effective from 1 August, with rates varying based on trade balances [2][11] - Countries like the UK, mainland China, and Vietnam have managed to maintain their baseline tariff rates due to existing trade deals, while others like India and the EU are in negotiations [3][29] - Significant tariff rates include 25% on imports from Japan and Korea, 25-36% on several ASEAN economies, and 50% on Brazilian imports, which may distort global trade data [4][6] - The report anticipates continued volatility in global trade data due to these tariffs, with potential material slowdowns in global goods trade towards the end of 2025 and early 2026 [6][41] - There are inflationary risks for the US as higher tariffs could lead to increased import costs, impacting consumer prices [7][42] Summary by Sections New Tariff Rates - New tariffs have been announced, with specific rates for various countries, set to take effect on 1 August [11][12] - The report includes a detailed table comparing new and previously suggested reciprocal tariff rates across different economies [13] Impact on Economies - Economies with significant exposure to the US market, such as Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Cambodia, may experience substantial impacts on their growth due to these tariffs [16][19] - The report highlights that sectoral tariffs will add additional burdens, particularly in industries like copper and pharmaceuticals [20][27] Trade Deals and Negotiations - Some economies have successfully negotiated trade deals, while others are still in discussions, with the EU and India being notable examples [29][30] - The report suggests that ongoing negotiations may lead to further adjustments in tariff rates before the implementation date [33] Global Trade Volatility - The first half of 2025 has seen significant volatility in global trade data, driven by frontloading of purchases ahead of tariff announcements [34][36] - The report predicts that as frontloading subsides, global goods trade flows will slow down significantly [41][42] Inflationary Pressures - The report indicates that the trade-weighted tariff on many products could increase input prices by over 10%, leading to inflationary risks in the US [42][46] - Early signs of inflationary pressures are already evident in the US PMI data, diverging from global trends [42][46]