汇丰：中国房地产_是什么推动了上涨

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for C&D International, CR Land, and China Jinmao, while holding a "Hold" rating for COLI [27][29]. Core Insights - The strong share price momentum in the China real estate sector is attributed to the market's rapidly rebuilding of policy expectations, with investors optimistic about government efforts to stabilize the housing market [2][3]. - A bottom-up approach is emphasized, focusing on stocks that can remain resilient despite potential sales slowdowns, particularly state-owned enterprises (SOEs) that can monetize their assets effectively [3][4]. - The report highlights three key stocks: CRL for its quality investment property portfolio, C&D for its young landbank, and China Jinmao for its luxury project track record [4][8]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - Recent sales data shows a mixed performance across different tiers of cities, with Tier-1 cities experiencing a 36% year-on-year decline in sales, while Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities showed smaller declines of 19% and 18% respectively [9]. Stock Analysis - CR Land is noted for its strong sales momentum and solid execution track record, with a target price of HKD 36.30, implying a 26.5% upside [29]. - C&D International is highlighted for its competitive edge and expected margin recovery, with a target price of HKD 21.20, indicating a 27.4% upside [29]. - China Jinmao is recognized for its turnaround story and ambitious sales targets, with a target price of HKD 1.60, suggesting a 28% upside [29]. - COLI faces uncertainty regarding its investment thesis, leading to a "Hold" rating, with a target price of HKD 14.80, reflecting a 10.8% upside [29]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a valuation summary for various property developers, indicating significant discounts to net asset values (NAV) for several companies, with CR Land and C&D International showing promising upside potential based on their current valuations [27][29].