花旗：美国机械_2025 年第二季度图表手册

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to companies such as Caterpillar (CAT), CNH Industrial (CNH), and Cummins (CMI), while some companies like AGCO are rated "Neutral" [5][137]. Core Insights - The report suggests that global equipment markets may bottom in 2025, particularly for agricultural machinery, with a cautious optimism for recovery in truck and construction markets [12][18]. - The "Big Beautiful Bill" is viewed positively for machinery fundamentals, with provisions supporting equipment demand and domestic industrial activity [29][33]. - Tariff impacts are expected to have a significant influence on demand and margins, with potential upside for companies in the second half of 2025 as tariff rates stabilize [21][23]. Key Machinery Themes - Agricultural machinery has outperformed other sectors, attributed to a cycle trough in global demand [6]. - Machinery stocks are currently not pricing in tariff concerns, although demand uncertainty remains prevalent [8]. - The report anticipates a decline in North American large agricultural sales in 2026 due to high new machine prices and elevated used inventories [16]. Construction - The outlook for non-residential construction spending remains stable, supported by mega project backlogs growing at a ~17% CAGR from 2024-2029 [38]. - Contractor profit margins have improved slightly, but project cancellations due to tariffs have increased significantly [45][48]. - The report expects global construction equipment sales volume to bottom in 2025, with a recovery anticipated in 2026 [50]. Mining and Oil & Gas - The mining equipment outlook is stable, with solid expectations for mining capex and miner EBITDA, driven by strong commodity prices [61]. - The oil and gas sector faces challenges with falling crude prices, leading to a weak near-term outlook for upstream spending [67]. NA Rental - The rental equipment market is expected to see steady growth, with total URI rental revenue growth projected at 4.0% in 2025 [73]. - The industry has consolidated, with the top 10 players now accounting for ~40% of the market, leading to better pricing discipline [78]. - NA rental penetration is above pre-pandemic levels, with specialty rental areas identified as key growth opportunities [80]. Ag Equipment - The US grain market is stabilizing but remains relatively depressed, with high new machinery prices impacting farmer sentiment [85][90]. - The report anticipates a slight decline in North American large agricultural sales in 2026, with a potential recovery in 2027 [92]. - Positive trends are noted in Europe and South America, with expectations for growth in agricultural sales in those regions [95][98]. Commercial Vehicles - The commercial vehicle market shows weak freight fundamentals, with spot rates remaining depressed [111]. - Class 8 tractor inventories are in reasonable shape, but overall market conditions suggest a weak outlook [113]. - The report indicates that pre-buying expectations for 2026 may be overly optimistic due to ongoing market weakness [120]. Short Cycle - Industrial PMIs have retreated, indicating a choppy macro backdrop, but there is cautious optimism for recovery in 2026 [126]. - Demand remains stable, but recent order traction may have been influenced by tariff pre-buying [128]. - Companies in the automation space are showing positive forward commentary, indicating potential growth despite uncertainty [131].