野村：可能因关税影响而重新定价，7 月下半月开始

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies Core Insights - The Japanese stock market is currently facing potential impacts from new tariffs, with a 25% tariff on Japanese goods set to take effect on August 1, 2025, which may lead to downward revisions in company guidance and affect share prices [1][2] - The earnings reporting season for Q1 FY25 is beginning, with expectations of a 21% year-on-year decline in recurring profits, followed by a flat Q2 and a further 14% decline in Q3 [5][11] - There is a notable correlation between changes in foreign ownership ratios and share price performance, with foreign ownership at 32.4% at the end of FY24, the highest since records began [15][16] Summary by Sections Tariff Impact and Market Reactions - The report highlights that share prices in sectors sensitive to tariffs, such as transportation equipment and pharmaceuticals, have suffered, while semiconductor stocks have gained [2] - Companies like Yaskawa Electric have faced significant share price declines after failing to adjust guidance in light of tariff impacts, indicating that investors should be cautious of similar occurrences in upcoming results announcements [2][12] Earnings Forecasts and Market Sentiment - Consensus forecasts for Q1 FY25 indicate a sharp decline in profits, with expectations for Q2 remaining unusually optimistic despite the anticipated downturn [5][11] - The report notes that share prices tend to react negatively to downward revisions in company guidance, suggesting that the market has not fully priced in the risks associated with potential tariff impacts [12][13] Foreign Ownership and Investment Indicators - The report discusses the changes in foreign ownership ratios, which have increased for certain sectors while decreasing for others, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment [15][16] - Key indicators for investment opportunities include high return on equity (ROE), cash reserves, share buyback history, and low price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, with many companies currently meeting these criteria [17][24]