Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given reports. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil futures in Malaysia may face pressure due to potential production growth in July, with a risk of falling below 4,000 ringgit. In China, Dalian palm oil futures are influenced by Malaysian palm oil trends. For soybean oil, although the USDA report adjusted the data, the impact on prices is limited. Domestic soybean oil inventory is increasing, and the basis quotation is under pressure [1]. Meal and Grains - The market sentiment for soybeans is pessimistic due to the USDA's report and concerns about tariffs. However, the Brazilian soybean is firm as the Brazilian premium continues to rise. In China, the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal is increasing, and the basis is oscillating at a low level. The soybean meal futures may have short - term upward potential [3]. Livestock (Pigs) - The pig spot market is weak. Secondary fattening enthusiasm has declined, and market demand is weak. Although the current breeding profit has returned to a low level, there is no basis for a significant decline. The market expects a potential market in July and August, but the actual supply may increase, and the 09 contract on the futures has upward pressure [7][9]. Corn - In the short term, the corn market's weak sentiment is being released. The price decline is slowing down as the remaining grain decreases. In the medium term, the supply is tight, and the demand from the breeding industry is increasing, which will support the corn price. Attention should be paid to the auction results and subsequent supply scale [11]. Sugar - The global sugar supply is becoming more relaxed, and the rebound of raw sugar is limited, maintaining a bottom - oscillating pattern. The domestic sugar supply is marginally loose, and it is advisable to take a bearish approach after the price rebounds [14]. Eggs - The supply of eggs is sufficient, but high - temperature weather affects egg production. The egg price has reached a phased low, and demand may improve due to potential promotions and increased replenishment by traders. The egg price may rise first and then stabilize this week, but the rebound amplitude is limited [16]. Cotton - The differentiation between the upstream and downstream of the cotton industry is intensifying. The downstream is facing difficulties, but the tight commercial inventory of cotton in the 2024/25 season before the new cotton is on the market still strongly supports the cotton price. In the short term, the domestic cotton price may oscillate in a higher range, but there is a risk of decline if the downstream remains weak [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - Soybean Oil: On July 11, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,240 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 0.12%); the Y2509 futures price was 7,994 yuan, up 8 yuan (0.10%); the basis was 236 yuan, down 18 yuan (- 7.09%). On July 14, the 09 - 01 spread was 34 yuan, up 14 yuan [1]. - Palm Oil: On July 11, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,770 yuan, down 30 yuan (- 0.34%); the P2509 futures price was 8,748 yuan, up 66 yuan (0.76%); the basis was 22 yuan, down 96 yuan. On July 14, the 09 - 01 spread was 30 yuan, down 4 yuan (- 11.76%) [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: On July 11, the spot price in Jiangsu was 9,610 yuan, unchanged; the 01509 futures price was 9,424 yuan, down 12 yuan (- 0.16%); the basis was 186 yuan, up 15 yuan (8.77%) [1]. Meal and Grains - Soybean Meal: The current price in Jiangsu was 2,830 yuan, unchanged; the M2509 futures price was 2,992 yuan, up 16 yuan (0.54%); the basis was - 162 yuan, down 16 yuan (- 10.96%). The Brazilian 9 - month shipping schedule's import crushing profit was 74 yuan, up 26 yuan (54.2%) [3]. - Rapeseed Meal: The current price in Jiangsu was 2,550 yuan, up 20 yuan (0.79%); the RM2509 futures price was 2,659 yuan, up 26 yuan (0.99%); the basis was - 109 yuan, down 6 yuan (- 5.83%). The Canadian 11 - month shipping schedule's import crushing profit was 304 yuan, up 22 yuan (7.80%) [3]. - Soybeans: The current price of Harbin soybeans was 3,960 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean contract was 4,131 yuan, up 30 yuan (0.73%); the basis was - 171 yuan, down 30 yuan (- 21.28%). The current price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was 3,660 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean contract was 3,637 yuan, up 18 yuan (0.50%); the basis was 23 yuan, down 18 yuan (- 43.90%) [3]. Livestock (Pigs) - Futures: The price of the 2511 contract was 13,605 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan (- 0.29%); the price of the 2509 contract was 14,285 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan (- 0.42%); the 9 - 11 spread was 680 yuan, down 20 yuan (- 2.86%) [7]. - Spot: The price in Henan was 14,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in Shandong was 14,850 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; in Sichuan was 13,950 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan; in Liaoning was 14,500 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Guangdong was 16,340 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Hunan was 14,410 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; in Hebei was 14,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [7]. Corn - Corn: The 2509 futures price was 2,302 yuan, down 4 yuan (- 0.17%); the basis was 48 yuan, down 6 yuan (- 11.11%); the 9 - 1 spread was 64 yuan, down 11 yuan (- 14.67%); the import profit was 546 yuan, up 1 yuan (0.21%) [11]. - Corn Starch: The 2509 futures price was 2,647 yuan, down 9 yuan (- 0.34%); the basis was 53 yuan, up 9 yuan (20.45%); the 9 - 1 spread was 37 yuan, down 7 yuan (- 15.91%); the starch - corn futures spread was 345 yuan, down 5 yuan (- 1.43%) [11]. Sugar - Futures: The price of the 2601 contract was 5,639 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan (0.18%); the price of the 2509 contract was 5,817 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan (0.12%); the 1 - 9 spread was - 178 yuan, up 3 yuan (1.66%) [14]. - Spot: The price in Nanning was 6,060 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming was 5,905 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan (0.43%); the basis in Nanning was 243 yuan, down 7 yuan (- 2.80%); the basis in Kunming was 88 yuan, up 18 yuan (25.71%) [14]. Eggs - Futures: The price of the 09 contract was 3,602 yuan/500KG, up 22 yuan (0.61%); the price of the 08 contract was 3,461 yuan/500KG, up 19 yuan (0.55%); the 9 - 8 spread was 138 yuan, up 3 yuan (2.17%) [16]. - Spot: The egg - producing area price was 2.72 yuan/jin, up 0.21 yuan (8.40%); the basis was - 740 yuan/500KG, up 192 yuan (20.59%) [16]. Cotton - Futures: The price of the 2509 contract was 13,875 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan (- 0.07%); the price of the 2601 contract was 13,815 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan (- 0.04%); the 9 - 1 spread was 60 yuan, down 5 yuan (- 7.69%) [19]. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 15,282 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan (0.12%); the CC Index of 3128B was 15,295 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan (0.19%); the FC Index of M: 1% was 13,545 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan (- 0.38%) [19].
《农产品》日报-20250715
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-07-15 02:14