大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250715
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-07-15 02:08
- Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand mismatch in the lithium carbonate market leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The main logic is the capacity mismatch. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the market. The positive factors include manufacturers' plans for production suspension and reduction, a decline in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene. The negative factors are the continuous high - level supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline and the insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [8][9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply - side: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 18,813 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.80%, higher than the historical average. In June 2025, the lithium carbonate production was 78,090 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 81,150 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.92%. The 6% spodumene CIF price has a daily increase but is lower than the historical average. The supply surplus situation has changed, and the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile has decreased [8]. - Demand - side: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 94,110 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.48%, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 16,071 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.38%. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced [8]. - Cost - side: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate is 63,502 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.83%, with a production profit of 264 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 69,292 yuan/ton, resulting in a loss of 7,063 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end is close to that at the ore end, with average production enthusiasm, while the salt lake end has strong production motivation [8]. - Inventory: The total inventory is 140,793 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.77%, higher than the historical average. The smelter inventory is 58,598 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.49%, the downstream inventory is 40,765 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.66%, and other inventories are 41,430 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.34% [8]. - Market Outlook: The lithium carbonate 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 65,760 - 67,200. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closes above the MA20, showing a bullish trend. The net short position of the main contract is increasing, showing a bearish trend. The supply surplus situation is expected to ease, with a slight decrease in supply and an increase in demand [8]. 3.2 Carbonate Lithium Market Overview - Price and Basis: The prices of lithium carbonate and related products have shown different degrees of changes. For example, the battery - grade lithium carbonate price is 64,650 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1.41%. The basis of some contracts has changed significantly, such as the - 1,830 yuan/ton basis of the 09 contract on July 14 [8][14]. - Supply - side Data: The weekly operating rate is 62%, a week - on - week increase of 0.32%. The daily production cost of spodumene is 63,502 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.83%. The monthly production of lithium carbonate in June 2025 is 78,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.34% [8][17]. - Demand - side Data: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate is 285,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.24%. The monthly production of ternary materials is 68,360 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.30%. The monthly power battery loading volume is 58,200 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 1.93% [17]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price and Production: The price of spodumene and lithium mica has shown certain fluctuations. The production of domestic lithium mines from different sources (lithium ore, lithium mica) has different trends over time [24]. - Import and Self - sufficiency Rate: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has changed, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has also shown different trends in different periods [24]. - Supply - demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium mines has fluctuated over different months from 2024 to 2025, with periods of surplus and shortage [27]. 3.4 Supply - Carbonate Lithium - Production and Capacity: The weekly and monthly production and capacity of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium ore, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling) have changed over time [30]. - Import and Export: The monthly import and export volume of lithium carbonate has changed, especially the import volume from Chile has decreased significantly [30][32]. - Supply - demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate has fluctuated over different months from 2024 to 2025, with periods of surplus and shortage [35]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Production and Capacity Utilization: The production and capacity utilization rate of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticizing, smelting) have changed over time [38]. - Import and Export: The monthly import and export volume of lithium hydroxide has changed, and the export volume is relatively large [38][41]. - Supply - demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide has fluctuated over different months from 2024 to 2025, with periods of surplus and shortage [41]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - Cost of Different Raw Materials: The production costs of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide from different raw materials (spodumene, lithium mica, recycled materials) have changed over time, and the profit situations are also different [44][47]. - Profit of Different Processes: The profits of different processes such as lithium carbonate import, purification, and lithium hydroxide processing have changed over time [44][47][50]. 3.7 Inventory - Carbonate Lithium Inventory: The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate from different sources (smelter, downstream, other) has changed over time [52]. - Lithium Hydroxide Inventory: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelter, downstream) has changed over time [52]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Production and Sales: The monthly production, sales, and export volume of lithium batteries have changed over time, and the prices of different types of lithium batteries have also shown different trends [56][59]. - Cost and Price: The cost and price of lithium battery cells have changed over time [56]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price and Production: The price and monthly production of ternary precursors of different series have changed over time [62]. - Supply - demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors has fluctuated over different months from 2024 to 2025, with periods of surplus and shortage [65]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - Price and Production: The price and monthly production of ternary materials of different series have changed over time [68]. - Cost and Profit: The cost and profit of ternary materials have changed over time [68]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - Price and Production: The price and monthly production of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium have changed over time [73][76]. - Cost and Profit: The cost and profit of iron phosphate lithium have changed over time [73]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicles - Production, Sales, and Export: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles have changed over time, and the sales penetration rate has also shown different trends [81][82]. - Retail - wholesale Ratio and Inventory Index: The retail - wholesale ratio of new energy vehicles and the inventory index of dealers have changed over time [85].