建信期货国债日报-20250715

Report Information - Report Name: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: July 15, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core View - Export being better than expected, the tightening of inter - bank funds during the tax period, and the strengthening of the A - share market suppressed the bond market, leading to a full - day decline in treasury bond futures. The yield of major term interest rate bonds in the inter - bank market increased slightly, and the funds in the money market tightened. It is expected that the third quarter will be a policy observation period, and the likelihood of further monetary easing is higher in October after the domestic economic recovery situation in the third quarter becomes clear, the results of the tariff negotiations are known, and the Fed cuts interest rates. Currently, the bond market is still constrained by funds [8][9][12] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Conditions: Export being better than expected, the tightening of inter - bank funds during the tax period, and the strengthening of the A - share market led to a full - day decline in treasury bond futures [8] - Interest Rate Bonds: The yields of major term interest rate bonds in the inter - bank market increased slightly. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 reported 1.6710%, up 0.5bp [9] - Money Market: Affected by the tax period, the money market tightened, and there was a net injection in the open market. There were 106.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank conducted 226.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection of 119.7 billion yuan. Short - term inter - bank funds rates rose across the board, while medium - and long - term funds remained stable and loose [10] - Conclusion: The release of June data this week is expected to have limited impact on the bond market. Currently, the marginal slowdown of export rush still supports the economy, and there is no further escalation of conflicts in Sino - US tariff negotiations. It is expected that the third quarter will be a policy observation period, and the bond market is still constrained by funds. However, the central bank's early announcement of the outright reverse repurchase operation after the market may boost market sentiment [11][12] 2. Industry News - Financial Data: In the first half of the year, RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan, and RMB deposits increased by 17.94 trillion yuan. The cumulative increase in the social financing scale was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. The central bank stated that the effect of monetary policy in supporting the real economy was obvious [13] - Foreign Trade Data: In the first half of the year, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 21.79 trillion yuan, with exports increasing by 7.2% and imports decreasing by 2.7%. In June, imports, exports, and exports all achieved positive year - on - year growth [13][14] - Monetary Policy Outlook: The market generally expects the Fed to restart interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, which will narrow the Sino - US interest rate spread [14] 3. Data Overview - Treasury Bond Futures Market: The report presents the trading data of treasury bond futures on July 14, including the previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, percentage change, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest of various contracts [6] - Money Market: Relevant charts show the term structure change and trend of SHIBOR, as well as the changes in the weighted average interest rate of inter - bank pledged repurchase and the interest rate of inter - bank pledged repurchase [28][32] - Derivatives Market: The report provides charts of the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) and the FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) [34]