大越期货菜粕早报-20250715

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2620 - 2680. It is influenced by factors such as the soybean meal trend, low rapeseed meal inventory, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. In the short - term, it will maintain a range - bound oscillation [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tip - Rapeseed meal RM2509 fluctuates in the range of 2620 - 2680. It is affected by soybean meal trends, low oil mill operation rate, low inventory, and tariff policies. The current situation is neutral, but there are multi - faceted influencing factors [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, improving the supply - tightness expectation in the spot market. - Canadian rapeseed annual production decreased slightly, and China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is ongoing. - Global rapeseed production decreased slightly this year due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the future increase in global geopolitical conflicts may support commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on oil mill rapeseed meal [12]. - Bearish: Domestic rapeseed was listed in June; the outcome of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is uncertain, and rapeseed meal demand is in the seasonal off - season [13]. - Main Logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Price and Spread: From July 3 to 14, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated, with the lowest being 341 on July 14. Rapeseed meal futures and spot prices showed an upward trend, and the spot price discount remained relatively high [14][16]. - Inventory: Rapeseed meal inventory was 0.46 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 58.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 84.67%. The import volume of rapeseed in July was lower than expected, and the inventory of oil mill rapeseed decreased slightly, while the rapeseed meal inventory remained low [9][27][29]. - Supply and Demand Balance: Data from 2014 - 2023 on domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheets show changes in various supply and demand indicators over the years, such as production, consumption, and inventory [25][26]. 3.5 Position Data - The long positions of the main players increased, and capital flowed in, indicating a bullish sentiment [9]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Fundamentals: Rapeseed meal is affected by soybean meal trends, low oil mill operation rate, and low inventory. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal spot has entered the peak season, and the import volume of rapeseed has increased, but the oil mill inventory has no short - term pressure. The tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive factor, but the positive effect may be limited [9]. - Basis: The spot price is 2560, and the basis is - 99, indicating a discount to the futures, which is bearish [9]. - Inventory: The inventory is 0.46 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 58.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 84.67%, which is bullish [9]. - Market: The price is above the 20 - day moving average but moving downward, showing a neutral trend [9]. - Main Position: The long positions of the main players increased, and capital flowed in, which is bullish [9]. - Expectation: In the short - term, rapeseed meal is affected by low imported rapeseed inventory and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, causing the price to rise and then fall. With the influence of soybean meal, the price will return to a range - bound oscillation [9].