大越期货PVC期货早报-20250715

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market presents a complex situation with both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. Negative factors involve overall supply pressure rebound, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and external demand. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand. The PVC2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4975 - 5045 [8][12][13] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Fundamentals: The supply pressure decreased this week, and the expected production is likely to increase next week as the expected maintenance decreases. The downstream overall and most sub - sectors'开工率 is lower than the historical average, with the current demand potentially remaining sluggish. The cost side shows that the losses of calcium carbide and ethylene methods are decreasing, but the profit is still lower than the historical average, which may put pressure on production scheduling. The fundamentals are considered neutral [6][8] - Basis: On July 14, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4930 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 80 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [10] - Inventory: The factory inventory decreased by 1.21% month - on - month, with the calcium carbide factory inventory down 1.61% and the ethylene factory inventory up 0.22%. The social inventory increased by 5.25% month - on - month, and the production enterprise's in - stock inventory days decreased by 0.32%. The inventory situation is considered neutral [10] - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 09 contract closed above MA20, which is bullish [10] - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position increased, which is bearish [10] 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report provides detailed data on yesterday's PVC market, including prices, spreads, inventory, and production of different types of PVC, as well as the operating rates of downstream industries [15] 3.3 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend: The report shows the historical basis trend of PVC futures, including the relationship between the basis, PVC East China market price, and the main contract closing price [17][18] - Price and Volume Trends: It presents the price, trading volume, and position changes of the PVC futures main contract, including the trends of MA5, MA10, MA20, MA60, and MA120, as well as the position changes of the top 5 and top 20 seats [21] - Spread Analysis: It shows the historical spread trends of different contract months of PVC futures, such as the 1 - 9 and 5 - 9 spreads [23][24] 3.4 PVC Fundamentals - Calcium Carbide Method - Related: It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, and inventory of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method of PVC production [26][29][31][34] - PVC Supply Trend: It shows the capacity utilization rates of calcium carbide and ethylene methods, production profits, daily and weekly production volumes, and maintenance losses of PVC [40][42] - Demand Trend: It includes the sales volume of PVC traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and the operating rates of downstream industries such as profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin. It also shows the relationship between PVC demand and real estate and infrastructure investment - related indicators [44][45][49][54][55][57] - Inventory: It presents the inventory data of the exchange, calcium carbide and ethylene factory warehouses, social inventory, and the inventory days of production enterprises [60] - Ethylene Method - Related: It includes the import volumes of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and relevant price spreads in the ethylene method of PVC production [61][62] - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC, including import, production, factory and social inventories, demand, and export from May 2024 to June 2025 [64][65]