工业硅期货早报-20250715

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8570 - 8820. The supply-side production schedule has decreased and remains at a low level, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased [6][7]. - The polysilicon 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 41085 - 42445. The supply-side production schedule will increase in the short term and is expected to adjust in the medium term. The overall demand shows a continuous decline, and cost support remains stable [11]. - The main logic for the market is that capacity mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The main bullish factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production. The main bearish factor is the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply and weak demand of downstream polysilicon [13][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 75,000 tons, a 1.35% increase from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 77,000 tons, a 11.59% increase from the previous week. The polysilicon inventory is at a low level, the silicone inventory is at a high level, and the aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level [6]. - Cost: In the Xinjiang region, the production loss of the sample oxygen - passing 553 grade is 3189 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the wet season has weakened [6]. - Basis: On July 14, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 8750 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 55 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 551,000 tons, a 0.18% decrease from the previous week; the sample enterprise inventory was 174,100 tons, a 12.99% decrease; the main port inventory was 124,000 tons, a 1.58% decrease [6]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position has decreased [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon production was 22,800 tons, a 5.00% decrease from the previous week. The production schedule for July is predicted to be 106,800 tons, a 5.74% increase from the previous month [9]. - Demand: The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components has decreased to varying degrees, and the overall demand shows a continuous decline [10][11]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 35,050 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 10,450 yuan/ton [10]. - Basis: On July 14, the price of N - type polysilicon was 45,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 4055 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [11]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 276,000 tons, a 1.47% increase from the previous week, and it is at a low level compared to the same period in history [11]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20 [11]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, and the long position has decreased [11]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data Industrial Silicon - Price and Basis: Various contract prices of industrial silicon futures have increased to varying degrees, and the basis of some contracts has changed. The spot prices of different grades of industrial silicon in East China have also changed to varying degrees [17]. - Inventory: The social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and main port inventory of industrial silicon have decreased to varying degrees [17]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: The production and capacity utilization of industrial silicon in different regions have changed. The production of some regions has increased, while that of others has decreased [17]. - Cost and Profit: The cost and profit of industrial silicon production in different regions and grades have changed. Some regions are in a loss - making state, and the profit margins of some products have changed [17]. Polysilicon - Price and Cost: The prices of different types of polysilicon and related products have changed to varying degrees, and the industry average cost remains stable [19]. - Inventory and Production: The polysilicon inventory has increased, and the production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components has decreased to varying degrees [19]. - Supply and Demand Balance: The monthly supply and demand balance of polysilicon shows that the supply exceeds the demand in some months [62].